Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2024
Questions?
The Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank (ECB) hosted the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2024 conference October 24–25. The conference was held in person in Cleveland, Ohio, and virtually in a hybrid format. It brought together top researchers from academia, central banks, and other policy institutions to present research findings related to inflation.
Beth M. Hammack, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and Philip R. Lane, member of the ECB’s executive board, provided remarks.
Christina Romer, Class of 1957 Garff B. Wilson Professor of Economics Emerita, University of California, Berkeley, and Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé Professor; Executive Director, Program for Economic Research, Columbia University, presented keynote addresses.
Scientific Committee
Ina Hajdini, Ed Knotek, Damjan Pfajfar, Robert Rich (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Elena Bobeica, Michael Ehrmann, Sarah Holton, Peter Karadi, Chiara Osbat (ECB)
If you have a question, please contact inflation.conference@clev.frb.org.
Agenda
Thursday, October 24, 2024 – Pianalto Auditorium
All times listed are in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
| 8:00–8:40 am |
Registration and Breakfast |
| 8:40–8:45 am |
Welcome |Edward S. Knotek II, Senior Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
| 8:45–9:00 am |
Opening Remarks | videoBeth M. Hammack, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Cleveland Fed research cited in President Hammack's remarks:
|
| 9:00–9:55 am |
The Pass-Through of Inflation Expectations into Prices and Wages: Evidence from an RCT Survey | download | video Michael Lamla, Universität Duisburg-Essen | slides Discussant: Erwan Gautier, Banque de France | slides |
| 9:55–10:50 am |
How Do Households Respond to Expected Inflation? An Investigation of Transmission Mechanisms | download | videoDaniela Puzzello, Indiana University | slides Discussant: Josefina Cenzon, Bocconi University | slides |
| 10:50–11:20 am |
Break |
| 11:20 am–12:15 pm |
Anchoring Boundedly Rational Expectation | download | videoStéphane Dupraz, Banque de France | slides Discussant: Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland | slides |
| 12:15–1:00 pm |
Lunch |
| 1:00–1:30 pm |
Remarks: Underlying Inflation: An Update | videoPhilip R. Lane, Executive Board Member, European Central Bank |
| 1:30–2:15 pm |
Poster Session 1Downward Price Rigidities and Inflationary Relative Demand ShocksBart Hobijn, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago SAFE to Update Inflation Expections? New Survey Evidence on Euro Area FirmsTimo Reinelt, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco The Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Firms and MacroeconomyXuguang Simon Sheng, American University Households’ Preferences for Inflation and Monetary Policy TradeoffsDamjan Pfajfar, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Global Inflation Expectations: Evidence of Heterogeneous and Synchronized MistakesKaren Smith, Drew University |
| 2:15–3:10 pm |
The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges | download | videoOliver Pfäuti, University of Texas at Austin | slides Discussant: Joel Flynn, Yale University | slides |
| 3:10–3:40 pm |
Break |
| 3:40–4:35 pm |
Nonlinearities in the Regional Phillips Curve with Labor Market Tightness | download | videoGiulia Gitti, Collegio Carlo Alberto and University of Turin | slides Discussant: Juan Herreño, University of California, San Diego | slides |
| 4:35–5:20 pm |
Keynote: Lessons from History for Successful Disinflation | videoChristina Romer, Class of 1957 Garff B. Wilson Professor of Economics Emerita, University of California, Berkeley | slides |
| 5:20–8:00 pm |
ReceptionFederal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland Room, 10th floor |
Friday, October 25, 2024 – Pianalto Auditorium
All times listed are in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
| 8:00–8:30 am |
Breakfast |
| 8:30–9:25 am |
Monetary Policy and Inflation Scares | download | videoJesper Lindé, International Monetary Fund | slides Discussant: Jean-Paul L’Huillier, Brandeis University | slides |
| 9:25–10:20 am |
The Inflation Accelerator | download | videoCallum Jones, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System | slides Discussant: Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada | slides |
| 10:20–10:50 am |
Break |
| 10:50–11:45 am |
Strike While the Iron Is Hot: Optimal Monetary Policy With a Nonlinear Phillips Curve | download | videoErnesto Pastén, Banco Central de Chile | slides Discussant: Timo Haber, De Nederlandsche Bank | slides |
| 11:45 am–12:30 pm |
Keynote: Heterogeneous Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Foundations of a Nonlinear Phillips Curve | videoStephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Professor of Economics, Columbia University | slides |
| 12:30–1:15 pm |
Lunch |
| 1:15–2:00 pm |
Poster Session 2The Unseen Cost of Inflation: Measuring Inflation Uncertainty and Its Economic RepercussionsSai Ma, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Nonlinearities of Monetary Policy Across States of Price RigidityPascal Seiler, ETH (Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule) Zürich Speaking of Inflation: The Influence of Fed Speeches on ExpectationsEleonora Granziera, Norges Bank What Drives Core Inflation? The Role of Supply ShocksElena Bobeica, European Central Bank Food Prices Matter Most: Sensitive Household Inflation ExpectationsMatthew Naylor, University of Oxford and Bank of England The Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Household SpendingChristoph Herler, Bank of England |
| 2:00–2:55 pm |
Cyclical Demand Shifts and Cost of Living Inequality | download | videoJake Orchard, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System | slides Discussant: Chiara Osbat, European Central Bank | slides |
| 2:55–3:20 pm |
Break |
| 3:20–4:15 pm |
Monetary Policy Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: Evidence from Granular Price Data | download | videoAnastasia Allayioti, European Central Bank | slides Discussant: Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University | slides |
| 4:15–5:10 pm |
Sticky Continuing-Tenant Rents | download | videoLara Loewenstein, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland | slides Discussant: Christopher D. Cotton, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston | slides |
| 5:10 pm |
Closing Remarks | videoDamjan Pfajfar, Vice President, Center for Inflation Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
When and where
October 24–October 25, 2024
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Virtually