Edward S. Knotek II
Senior Vice President and Director of Research
- Mathematics Economics and Spanish,
- Denison University,
- University of Michigan,
- University of Michigan,
Edward S. Knotek II is a senior vice president and director of research in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this role, Dr. Knotek serves as the chief economic advisor to the Cleveland Fed’s president on monetary policy and related matters, leads the Research Department and its staff of economists and analysts across the department’s various teams, establishes departmental priorities, and develops staff. Dr. Knotek also leads the Bank’s Center for Inflation Research, which seeks to improve the understanding of policymakers, researchers, and the public about inflation and the factors that influence its behavior. Dr. Knotek’s research focuses on monetary economics, macroeconomics, and forecasting, and he has written on firms’ price-setting behavior, inflation dynamics, inflation expectations, inflation nowcasting, households’ views on monetary policy, and unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle.
Dr. Knotek joined the Cleveland Fed as vice president in 2012 and was promoted to senior vice president in 2017, to associate director of research in 2021, and to his current role in 2023. Prior to taking on the role of director of research, he led the Research Department’s macroeconomic forecasting group, which is responsible for developing models for economic forecasting and policy analysis. He took on leadership of the Center for Inflation Research upon its creation in 2018. Before joining the Bank, he was a vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Originally from the Cleveland area, he holds a BA in mathematics-economics and Spanish from Denison University in Granville, Ohio, and an MA and a PhD in economics from the University of Michigan.
- “Real-Time Density Nowcasts of US Inflation: A Model-Combination Approach.” With Saeed Zaman. International Journal of Forecasting, 2022 (forthcoming).
- “Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations.” with Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Raphael Schoenle. Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, 2022 (forthcoming).
- “Asymmetric Responses of Consumer Spending to Energy Prices: A Threshold VAR Approach.” With Saeed Zaman. Energy Economics, 2021, 95: 105127.
- “Forecasting GDP Growth with NIPA Aggregates: In Search of Core GDP.” With Christian Garciga. International Journal of Forecasting, 2019, 35(4): 1814-1828.
- “Financial Nowcasts and Their Usefulness in Macroeconomic Forecasting.” With Saeed Zaman. International Journal of Forecasting, 2019, 35(4): 1708-1724.
- “Nowcasting US Headline and Core Inflation.” With Saeed Zaman. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2017, 49(5): 931–968.
- “Drifting Inflation Targets and Monetary Stagflation.” With Shujaat Khan. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2015, 52: 39–54.
- “Convenient Prices and Price Rigidity: Cross–Sectional Evidence.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 2011, 93(3): 1076–1086.
- “Markov–Chain Approximations of Vector Autoregressions: Application of General Multivariate–Normal Integration Techniques.” With Stephen J. Terry. Economics Letters, 2011, 110(1): 4–6.
- “A Tale of Two Rigidities: Sticky Prices in a Sticky–Information Environment.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2010, 42(8): 1543–1564.
- “Convenient Prices, Currency, and Nominal Rigidity: Theory with Evidence from Newspaper Prices.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008, 55(7): 1303–1316.
- “Stagflation.” With Robert B. Barsky. In The Social Science Encyclopedia,3rd ed., edited by Adam Kuper and Jessica Kuper, New York: Routledge. 2004.
Other Federal Reserve Publications
- “What Drives Consumer Debt Dynamics?” With John Carter Braxton. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, 2012, 97(4): 31–54.
- “How Do Households Respond to Uncertainty Shocks?” With Shujaat Khan. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, 2011, 96(2): 5–34.
- “How Will Unemployment Fare Following the Recession?” With Stephen Terry. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, 2009, 94(3): 5–33.
- “How Useful Is Okun’s Law?” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, 2007, 92(4): 73–103.