Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2023

All times listed are in Central European Time (CET)

8:30–9:00 Registration and Coffee

9:00–9:20 Welcome and Opening Remarks | video

Isabel Schnabel, European Central Bank

Session 1: Phillips Curve | video

Session Chair: Sarah Holton, European Central Bank

9:20–10:05 Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle | paper

Giovanni Nicolò, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Francesco Bianchi, Johns Hopkins University
Dongho Song, Johns Hopkins University

Discussant: Marta Bańbura, European Central Bank

10:05–10:50 It’s Baaack: The Inflation Surge of 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve

Gauti B. Eggertsson, Brown University
Pierpaolo Benigno, Universität Bern

Discussant: Antonella Trigari, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi

10:50–11:35 Anatomy of the Phillips Curve: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications | paper

Luca Gagliardone, New York University
Mark Gertler, New York University
Simone Lenzu, New York University
Joris Tielens, National Bank of Belgium

Discussant: Jonathon Hazell, London School of Economics and Political Science

11:35–12:00 Break

12:00–13:00 Keynote Speech | video

The Market for Inflation Risk | paper

Session Chair: Óscar Arce, European Central Bank

Ricardo Reis, London School of Economics and Political Science

13:00–14:30 Lunch Break and Poster Session 1

The Expectations of Others

Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 
Ezequiel Garcia-Lembergman, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
John Leer, Morning Consult
Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University

Consumption Categories, Household Attention, and Inflation Expectations: Implications for Optimal Monetary Policy

Alexander Dietrich, Danmarks Nationalbank

Building Central Bank Credibility: The Role of Forecast Performance

Michael McMahon, University of Oxford

Inflation and Wage Expectations of Firms and Employees

Sebastian Link, ifo Institute and Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
Lukas Buchheim, Technische Universität Dortmund
Sascha Möhrle, ifo Institute and Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data

Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Keshav Dogra, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Sebastian Heise, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Brent Meyer, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Robert W. Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Raphael S. Schoenle, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Giorgio Topa, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Wändi Bruine de Bruin, University of Southern California

Session 2: Inflation Effects of Supply Disruptions | video

Chair: Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 

14:30–15:15 The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruption on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Evidence | paper

Yiliang Li, University of International Business and Economics
Xiwen Bai, Tsinghua University
Francesco Zanetti, University of Oxford

Discussant: Frank Smets, European Central Bank

15:15–16:00 Global Supply Chain Pressures, Inflation, and Implications for Monetary Policy | paper

Dennis Bonam, De Nederlandsche Bank
Guido Ascari, De Nederlandsche Bank and Università degli Studi di Pavia
Andra Smadu, De Nederlandsche Bank

Discussant: Elena Bobeica, European Central Bank

16:00–16:15 Break

Session 3: Multisector Models and Inflation after COVID-19 | video

Chair: Peter Karadi, European Central Bank

16:15–17:00 Inflation Strikes Back: The Role of Import Competition and the Labor Market | paper

Sebastian Heise, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Mary Amiti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Fatih Karahan, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Ayşegül Şahin, University of Texas at Austin

Discussant: Ekaterina Peneva, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

17:00–17:45 What Drives Inflation? Lessons from Disaggregated Price Data

Elisa Rubbo, University of Chicago

Discussant: Mishel Ghassibe, Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREi) and Barcelona School of Economics

17:45 End of First Conference Day

All times listed are in Central European Time (CET)

9:30–10:30 Registration and Coffee

Session 4: Inflation and Price Dispersion | video

Session Chair: Chiara Osbat, European Central Bank 

10:30–11:15 Expected Inflation and Welfare: The Role of Consumer Search

Francisca Sara-Zaror, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Discussant: Gaetano Gaballo, École des hautes études commerciales de Paris

11:15–12:00 Inflation Distorts Relative Prices: Theory and Evidence | paper

Henning Weber, Deutsche Bundesbank
Klaus Adam, University of Mannheim
Andrey Alexandrov, Princeton University

Discussant: Viacheslav Sheremirov, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

12:00–12:30 Poster Session 2

Striking a Bargain: Narrative Identification of Wage Bargaining Shocks

Žymantas Budrys, European University Institute
Mario Porqueddu, European Central Bank
Andrej Sokol, Bloomberg LP

Feeling the Heat: Extreme Temperatures and Price Stability

Miles Parker, European Central Bank
Donata Faccia, European Central Bank
Livio Stracca, European Central Bank

Firming up Price Inflation

Lena Anayi, Bank of England
Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University
Philip Bunn, Bank of England
Paul Mizen, University of Nottingham
Gregory Thwaites, University of Nottingham
Ivan Yotzov, Bank of England

Matching Price Stickiness and MPC: Monetary Policy Implications

Minghao Li, Peking University
Ting Lan, International Monetary Fund
Lerong Li, University of International Business and Economics

Euro Area Inflation and a New Measure of Core Inflation

Claudio Morana, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, CefES, RCEA-Europe ETS, CeRP at the Collegio Carlo Alberto

Nowcasting Consumer Price Inflation Using High-Frequency (Scanner Data): Evidence from Germany

Elisabeth Wieland, Deutsche Bundesbank 
Günter W. Beck, Universität Siegen
Kai Carstensen, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
Jan-Oliver Menz, Deutsche Bundesbank
Richard Schnorrenberger, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel

The Asymmetric Effects of Weather Shocks on Euro Area Inflation

Catalina Martinez Hernandez, European Central Bank
Matteo Ciccarelli, European Central Bank
Friderike Kuik, European Central Bank

12:30–13:30 Lunch Break

Session 5: Expectations | video

Session Chair: Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

13:30–14:15 House Price Expectations and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data Inflation Expectations and Macro Dynamics under Finite Horizon Planning | paper

Roshni Tara, University of Surrey
Vedanta Dhamija, University of Surrey
Ricardo Nunes, University of Surrey

Discussant: Francesca Monti, Université catholique de Louvain

14:15–15:00 Inflation Expectations and Macro Dynamics under Finite Horizon Planning

Edward Herbst, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Christopher Gust, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
David Lopez-Salido, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Discussant: Stéphane Dupraz, Banque de France

15:00–15:45 Looking through Supply Shocks versus Controlling Inflation: Understanding the Central Bank Dilemma

Thomas Carter, Bank of Canada
Paul Beaudry, Bank of Canada and University of British Columbia
Amartya Lahiri, University of British Columbia

Discussant: Jane Ryngaert, University of Notre Dame

15:45–16:30 Closing Remarks | video

Loretta J. Mester, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

16:30 End of Conference