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  • Background: “Nowcasts” are estimates or forecasts of the present.
  • Description: We provide daily nowcasts of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Inflation, month-over-month percent change
MonthCPICore CPIPCECore PCEUpdated
November 20220.520.510.430.4111/28
October 20220.370.2811/28
Inflation, year-over-year percent change
MonthCPICore CPIPCECore PCEUpdated
November 20227.556.265.834.9111/28
October 20226.035.0211/28
Note: If the cell is blank, it implies that the actual data corresponding to the month for that inflation measure have already been released.
Quarterly annualized percent change
QuarterCPICore CPIPCECore PCEUpdated
2022:Q44.955.564.394.7811/28

Note: If the cell is blank, it implies that the actual data corresponding to the quarter for that inflation measure have already been released.


  • Year: Quarter

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    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland calculations based on data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Energy Information Administration, Financial Times, and Haver Analytics

  • Year: Month

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    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland calculations based on data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Energy Information Administration, Financial Times, and Haver Analytics

  • Year: Month

    Chart will load here
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland calculations based on data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Energy Information Administration, Financial Times, and Haver Analytics

Background

About Inflation Nowcasting

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the consumer price index (CPI). Nowcasts are estimates or forecasts of the present. The Cleveland Fed produces nowcasts of the current period's rate of inflation—inflation in a given month or quarter—before the official CPI or PCE inflation data are released. These forecasts can help to give a sense of where inflation is now and where it is likely to be in the future.

Our inflation nowcasts are produced with a model that uses a small number of available data series at different frequencies, including daily oil prices, weekly gasoline prices, and monthly CPI and PCE inflation readings. The model generates nowcasts of monthly inflation, and these are combined for nowcasting current-quarter inflation. As with any forecast, there is no guarantee that these inflation nowcasts will be accurate all of the time. But historically, the Cleveland Fed’s model nowcasts have done quite well—in many cases, they have been more accurate than common benchmarks from alternative statistical models and even consensus inflation nowcasts from surveys of professional forecasters.

https://youtu.be/sjVYpom38zI
Center for Inflation Research

The Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research is the hub for “all things inflation,” providing a combination of research, analyses and data, background and commentary, and an annual conference series dedicated to inflation.