Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2022
The Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank (ECB) hosted the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2022 Conference on September 29–30. The conference was held in person in Cleveland, Ohio, and virtually in a hybrid format. It brought together top researchers from academia, central banks, and other policy institutions to present research findings related to inflation.
Agenda
Questions?
Please direct any conference questions to: inflation.conference@clev.frb.org
dAY 1
Welcome and Opening Remarks | video
8:40–8:55 am
Chair: Edward S. Knotek II, Senior Vice President and Associate Research Director, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Ellis W. Tallman, Executive Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Session 1: Inflation and COVID-19
Chair: Christiane Nickel, European Central Bank
Understanding Post-Covid Inflation Dynamics | video
8:55–9:50 am
*14:55 CET
Jesper Lindé, International Monetary Fund | paper | presentation
Martin Harding, Bank of Canada
Mathias Trabandt, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main
Discussant: Pablo Cuba-Borda, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System | presentation
The Scars of Supply Shocks | video
9:50–10:45 am
Martin Wolf, University of St. Gallen | paper | presentation
Luca Fornaro, Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Discussant: Albert Queralto, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System | presentation
Break
10:45–11:05 am
The Inflationary Effects of Sectoral Reallocation | video
11:05–noon
Sebastian Graves, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System | paper | presentation
Francesco Ferrante, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Matteo Iacoviello, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Discussant: Michael Weber, University of Chicago Booth School of Business | presentation
Lunch
Noon–1:00 pm
Policy Panel | video
1:00–1:50 pm
Chair: Jean-Paul L'Huillier, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Moderator: Steve Liesman, Senior Economics Reporter, CNBC
Loretta J. Mester, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Philip R. Lane, Executive Board, European Central Bank
Session 2: Inflation Expectations
Chair: Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Monetary Policy and Anchored Expectations – An Endogenous Gain Learning Model | video
2:00–2:55 pm
Laura V. Gáti, European Central Bank | paper | presentation
Discussant: Leonardo Melosi, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago | presentation
Break
2:55–3:15 pm
Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation | video
3:15–4:10 pm
Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland | paper | presentation
Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
John Leer, Morning Consult
Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University
Discussant: Maarten van Rooij, De Nederlandsche Bank | presentation
Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms' Perspectives on Inflation | video
4:10–5:05 pm
Xuguang Simon Sheng, American University | paper | presentation
Brent Meyer, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Discussant: Olivier Coibion, University of Texas at Austin | presentation
Networking and Transition to Historic Lobby
5:05–5:30 pm
Reception and Poster Session
Location: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Historic Lobby (in person only, no virtual option)
5:30–7:30 pm
Business Cycles when Consumers Learn by Shopping
Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza, Universitat Pompeu Fabra | paper
Average Inflation Targeting: Time Inconsistency and Intentional Ambiguity
Chengcheng Jia, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland | paper
Jing Cynthia Wu, University of Notre Dame and the National Bureau of Economic Research
Cost-Price Relationships in a Concentrated Economy
Gustavo Joaquim, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston | paper
Falk Bräeuning, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
José Fillat, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation?
Olena Kostyshyna, Bank of Canada | paper
Monica Jain, Bank of Canada
Xu Zhang, Bank of Canada
Imperfect Information, Heterogeneous Demand Shocks, and Inflation Dynamics
Tatsushi Okuda, International Monetary Fund | paper
Francesco Zanetti, University of Oxford
Tomohiro Tsuruga, International Monetary Fund
What Can We Learn from 60 Years of PCE Inflation Data?
Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University | paper
Dominic Smith, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cross-Country Price and Inflation Dispersion: Retail Network or National Border?
Georg Strasser, European Central Bank | paper
Teresa Messner, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Fabio Rumler, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
All times listed are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT). *Denotes Central European Time (CET)
dAY 2
Session 3: Micro Pricing
Chair: Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
The Granular Origins of Inflation and Its International Comovement | video
8:30–9:25 am
*14:30 CET
Santiago Ernesto Alvarez-Blaser, University of Basel | paper
Raphael Auer, Bank for International Settlements and the Center for Economic and Policy Research
Sarah Lein, University of Basel
Andrei Levchenko, University of Michigan
Discussant: Saroj Bhattarai, University of Texas at Austin | presentation
Supermarket Price Setting on the Two Sides of the Atlantic – Evidence from Scanner Data | video
9:25–10:20 am
Peter Karadi, European Central Bank | paper | presentation
Juergen Amann, University of Nottingham
Javier Sánchez Bachiller, European Central Bank
Pascal Seiler, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich
Jesse Wursten, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
Discussant: Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada | presentation
Break
10:20–10:40 am
Pricing under Distress | video
10:40–11:35 am
Boragan Aruoba, University of Maryland | paper | presentation
Andrés Fernández, IMF
Daniel Guzman, UBC
Ernesto Pastén, Banco Central de Chile
Felipe Saffie, University of Virginia Darden School of Business
Discussant: Cosmin Ilut, Duke University | presentation
Lunch
11:35–12:35 pm
Session 4: Empirical Applications
Chair: Peter Karadi, European Central Bank
Endogenous Uncertainty as Transmission Channel of Shocks to Inflation Expectations | video
12:35–1:30 pm
Guido Ascari, Università di Pavia and De Nederlandsche Bank | paper | presentation
Stefano Fasani, Lancaster University
Jakob Grazzini, Università di Pavia
Lorenza Rossi, Lancaster University
Discussant: Pablo Guerron-Quintana, Boston College | presentation
Has the Phillips Curve Flattened and Why? | video
1:30–2:25 pm
Yiru Wang, University of Pittsburgh | paper | presentation
Atsushi Inoue, Vanderbilt University
Barbara Rossi, Barcelona School of Economics
Discussant: Juan Herreño, University of California-San Diego | presentation
Undisclosed Material Inflation Risk | video
2:25–3:20 pm
Yaniv Konchitchki, University of California, Berkeley | paper | presentation
Jin Xie, Peking University
Discussant: Francesco D'Acunto, Georgetown University | presentation
Closing Remarks | video
3:30 pm
Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Please direct any conference questions to inflation.conference@clev.frb.org.
When and where
September 29-30, 2022