Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2019

• Edward S. Knotek II, Senior Vice President and Associate Research Director
• Robert W. Rich, Senior Economic and Policy Advisor
• Todd E. Clark. Senior Vice President

8:00 - 8:30 am
Registration and Continental Breakfast

8:30 - 8:45 am
Welcome and Opening Remarks
Loretta J. Mester, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Session I

Chair: Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

8:45 - 9:45 am
Trade Exposure and the Evolution of Inflation Dynamics
Simon Gilchrist, New York University, paper, presentation
Egon Zakrajšek, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Discussant: Tony Zhang, Boston University, discussion

9:45 - 10:45 am
Asymmetries and Non-Linearities in Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Mina Kim, Bureau of Labor Statistics, paper, presentation
Logan T. Lewis, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Robert J. Vigfusson, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Discussant: Andres Drenik, Columbia University, discussion

10:45 - 11:00 am
Refreshment Break

11:00 am - Noon
Price Trends Over the Product Life Cycle and the Optimal U.K. Inflation Target
Klaus Adam, University of Oxford, Nuffield College & CEPR
Henning Weber, Deutsche Bundesbank, paper, presentation
Discussant: Alexander Wolman, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, discussion

Noon - 1:00 pm
Lunch

Session II

Chair: Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

1:00 - 2:00 pm
Expectations Formation, Sticky Prices, and the ZLB
Betsy Bersson, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Patrick Hürtgen, Deutsche Bundesbank
Matthias Paustian, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, paper, presentation
Discussant: Jeffrey Campbell, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

2:00- 3:00 pm
Empirical Properties of Inflation Expectations and the Zero Lower Bound
Mirko Wiederholt, Sciences Po and CEPR, paper, presentation
Discussant: Philippe Andrade, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, discussion

3:00 - 3:15 pm
Refreshment Break

3:15 - 4:15 pm
Do You Know That I Know That You Know: Higher Order Expectations in Survey Data
Olivier Coibion, University of Texas at Austin and NBER
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
Saten Kumar, Auckland University of Technology
Jane Ryngaert, Wake Forest University, paper, presentation
Discussant: Olivier Armantier, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, discussion

4:15 - 5:15 pm
IQ, Expectations, and Choice
Francesco D'Acunto, Boston College
Daniel Hoang, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Maritta Paloviita, Bank of Finland
Michael Weber, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, paper, presentation
Discussant: Eric Sims, University of Notre Dame, discussion

5:30 - 6:30 pm
Reception and Poster Session

Exchange Rates, Retailers, and Importing: Theory and Firm-Level Evidence
Patrick Alexander, Bank of Canada, Alex Chernoff, Bank of Canada, paper

What's Behind Firms' Inflation Forecasts?
Cristina Conflitti, Banca d'Italia, paper
Roberta Zizza, Banca d'Italia

Micro-Macro Moments: Time- vs. State-Dependent Pricing?
Gee Hee Hong, International Monetary Fund, paper
Matthew Klepacz, College of William & Mary
Ernesto Pastén, Central Bank of Chile and Toulouse School of Economics
Raphael Schoenle, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Brandeis University

Price Setting and Volatility: Evidence from Oil Price Volatility Shocks
Matthew Klepacz, College of William & Mary, paper

Perceptions and Expectations of Inflation by U.S. Households
Sandor Axelrod, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
David Lebow, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, paper
Ekaterina Peneva, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Imperfect Information, Shock Heterogeneity and Inflation Dynamics
Tatsushi Okuda, Bank of Japan paper
Tomohiro Tsuruga, Bank of Japan
Francesco Zanetti, University of Oxford

6:45 pm

Dinner
Introduction of Dinner Speaker
Ellis Tallman, Executive Vice President and Director of Research
Keynote dinner speaker: Philipp Hartmann, European Central Bank, paper, speech, speech slides

Continental Breakfast

8:15 – 8:45 am

Session III

Chair: Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Price Selection
8:45 – 9:45 am
Carlos Carvalho, Central Bank of Brazil and Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro | paper | presentation
Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada
Discussant Peter Karadi, European Central Bank, discussion

Pipeline Pressures and Sectoral Inflation Dynamics
9:45 – 10:45 am
Frank Smets, European Central Bank, Ghent University, and CEPR
Joris Tielens, National Bank of Belgium and Katholieke Universiteit Leuven | paper | presentation
Jan Van Hove, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven and KBC Bank
Discussant: Hafedh Bouakez, HEC-Montréal, discussion

Refreshment Break

10:45 – 11:00 am

Heterogeneous Price Rigidities and Monetary Policy
11:00 – Noon
Christopher Clayton, Harvard University
Xavier Jaravel, London School of Economics and Political Science
Andreas Schaab, Harvard University | paper | presentation
Discussant: Andres Blanco, University of Michigan, discussion

Lunch

Noon - 1:00 pm