All times are in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).
Registration and Continental Breakfast
8:15–8:45 am
Welcome
8:45–8:50 am
James Mitchell, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Opening Remarks | video
8:50–9:00 am
Loretta J. Mester, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Session on Forecasting
Quantile Density Combination: An Application to US GDP Forecasts | video
9:00–10:00 am
Knut Are Aastveit, Norges Bank | paper | presentation
Saskia ter Ellen, Norges Bank and BI Norwegian Business School
Giulia Mantoan, The Alan Turing Institute
Discussant: Tony Chernis, Bank of Canada and University of Strathclyde | presentation
Sentiment and Uncertainty about Regulation | video
10:00–11:00 am
Zhoudan Xie, George Washington University | paper | presentation
Tara Sinclair, George Washington University
Discussant: Simon van Norden, HEC Montréal and CIRANO | presentation
Break
11:00–11:30 am
Combining Bayesian VAR and Survey Density Forecasts: Does It Pay Off? | video
11:30 am–12:30 pm
Joan Paredes, European Central Bank | paper | presentation
Marta Bańura, European Central Bank
Federica Brenna, KU Leuven
Francesco Ravazzolo, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano
Discussant: Philippe Goulet Coulombe, Université du Québec à Montréal | presentation
Lunch
12:30–1:45 pm
Session on Identifying Shocks and Turning Points
Dean Croushore, University of Richmond
Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach | video
1:45–2:45 pm
Thomas Drechsel, University of Maryland | paper | presentation
Boragan Aruoba, University of Maryland
Discussant: Kevin Lee, University of Nottingham | presentation
Real-Time Monitoring of Bubbles and Crashes | video
2:45–3:45 pm
Emily Whitehouse, University of Sheffield | paper | presentation
David Harvey, University of Nottingham
Steve Leybourne, University of Nottingham
Discussant: Josefine Quast, Deutsche Bundesbank and University of Würzburg | presentation
Break
3:45–4:15 pm
Poster Session and Reception
(In person only, no virtual option)
4:15–7:30 pm
Using Survey Information for Improving the Density Nowcasting of US GDP
Cem Cakmakli, Koς University
Hamza Demircan, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis
Tony Chernis, Bank of Canada and University of Strathclyde
Weekly Nowcasting US Inflation with Enhanced Random Forests
Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland | paper
Seton Leonard, System2
Massimiliano Marcellino, Università Bocconi
Philipp Wegmueller, Staatssekretariat für Wirtschaft (SECO)
A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap
Philippe Goulet Coulombe, Université du Québec à Montréal | paper
Shock Persistence, Uncertainty and News-Driven Business Cycles
Kevin Lee, University of Nottingham
Kalvinder Shields, University of Melbourne
Guido Turnip, Monash University
GDP Revisions are Not Cool. The Statistical Agency Loss Function
Joan Paredes, European Central Bank
Maddalena Lalik, European Central Bank
J. Salvado Garcia, European Central Bank
A New Bayesian MIDAS Approach for Flexible and Interpretable Nowcasting
Galina Potjagailo, Bank of England | paper
David Kohns, Heriot-Watt University
Basel III Credit-to-GDP Gap Indicators and the Origins of Their Unreliability
Josefine Quast, Deutsche Bundesbank and University of Würzburg | paper
Reception on the 10th floor
5:15–7:15 pm
