Business Outlook and Trends Survey

Results of latest survey

The latest BOTS was fielded from December 1 to 19, 2025.

Demand and capital investments

The responses to the latest BOTS suggest that businesses in the Fourth District were generally optimistic, with 47 percent experiencing demand increases over the past six months and 56 percent anticipating growth in the coming six months. Overall, capital investments remained stable, with most firms reporting no changes in the previous six months and expecting no changes in the coming six months.

Employment and wages

Most firms reported no change in staffing levels in the past six months and anticipated no change in the next six months. However, the share that expected to increase staffing levels in the coming six months (36 percent) was higher than the share that reported an increase in the previous six months (28 percent). Slightly more firms reported leaving wages unchanged in the prior six months (49 percent) than reported increasing wages in the same period (47 percent). Meanwhile, most firms (57 percent) expected to increase wages in the coming six months.

Costs and prices

Cost pressures continue, with 71 percent of respondents reporting higher nonlabor input costs and 64 percent expecting this trend to persist. Similarly, price increases remain prevalent, as 50 percent of firms reported raising prices in the last six months and 54 percent anticipated increasing prices in the coming six months.

Overview of BOTS

The Cleveland Fed’s Business Outlook and Trends Survey (BOTS) gathers data from businesses and provides insights into the current economic landscape and future expectations across the Fourth Federal Reserve District. The District includes all of Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

How are the data collected, analyzed, and distributed?

The BOTS is a short web-based survey that is distributed by partner organizations throughout the Fourth District. Through the BOTS, the Cleveland Fed surveys a diverse range of local and regional businesses about the economic conditions that they face and about their future outlooks. Based on the survey responses, our regional team analyzes data across topics such as regional goods and services, labor markets, and prices to provide an overall picture of the regional economy. The team then makes these findings available to the public through the Cleveland Fed’s website.

How do the survey data directly benefit users?

The data collected through the BOTS potentially offer insights into economic changes before they show up in published data. This early information helps businesses understand why and how trends may be occurring, allowing them to make informed decisions. By participating in the BOTS, regional business owners and key decisionmakers contribute to data that directly inform the Fed, service providers, policymakers, and others, ultimately benefiting their businesses and others like theirs. Survey partners that collect sufficient responses will receive an individualized report about business conditions in their communities.

Impact on policy decisions

The data collected through the BOTS play a crucial role in shaping policy decisions at both the regional and national levels. By providing early insights into economic trends and challenges, the survey informs the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. This ensures that the unique needs and conditions of the Fourth District are considered in the broader context of national economic policy. Additionally, the data help policymakers understand the specific issues faced by regional businesses, allowing them to develop targeted interventions and support measures. By participating in the BOTS, businesses contribute to a valuable data set that directly influences policy decisions that impact their operations and the broader economy.

Interested in becoming a survey partner?

If you or someone you know would like to partner with us on administering the BOTS, please email CLEV.Regional.Analysis@clev.frb.org. As a reminder, survey partners that collect sufficient responses will receive an individualized report about business conditions in their communities. This report can be shared with their membership, providing valuable insights that can help local businesses thrive.