- Share
Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2026
September 24–25, 2026
The Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank (ECB) hosted the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2026 Conference on September 24–25 in person at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Presenters and discussants appeared in person at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Audience attendance was virtual.
Veronica Guerrieri, University of Chicago, Booth, and George-Marios Angeletos, Northwestern University, presented keynote addresses.
A policy panel moderated by David Wilcox, Director of US Economic Research at Bloomberg Economics, featured remarks from Beth M. Hammack, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; Boris Vujcic, ECB Vice President; and Jonathan Heath, Deputy Governor of Banco de Mexico.
All times listed are in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
Thursday, September 24, 2026 – Pianalto Auditorium
| 8:00–8:45 am |
Registration and Continental Breakfast |
| 8:45–8:50 am |
Welcome | videoEdward S. Knotek II, Senior Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
| 8:50–9:00 am |
Opening Remarks | videoBeth M. Hammack, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
Session 1: Inflation and Firm BehaviorSession Chair: Oscar Arce, European Central Bank |
|
| 9:00–9:55 am |
How Firms Form Beliefs and the Implications for Inflation | paper | videoHugo Monnery, Harvard University | presentation Discussant: Michael Weber, Purdue University | presentation |
| 9:55–10:50 am |
The Future in Today's Prices: Evidence from a Survey of U.S. Firms | paper | videoJenny Tang, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston | presentation Discussant: Carlos Carvalho, Kapitalo Investments and PUC Rio | presentation |
| 10:50–11:20 am |
Break |
| 11:20 am–12:15 pm |
Prices and Monetary Policy: The Role of Financial Constraints | paper | videoMichael Bauer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco | presentation Discussant: Peter Karadi, European Central Bank | presentation |
| 12:15–1:00 pm |
Lunch |
| 1:00–2:00 pm |
Short Presentation Session: Inflation and Inflation Expectations | videoSession Chair: Robert W. Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Inflation Inattention on the Production Network: Firm-Level Evidence and Macro Implications | paper
Rafael Gonçalves, Princeton University | presentation People's understanding of macroeconomic shocks | paperJessica Piccolo, University of Padova | presentation The Causal Effects of Tariff Uncertainty on Consumers' Macroeconomic Expectations and Spending Plans
Bernardo Candia, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland | presentation Beware of large shocks! A non-parametric structural inflation model
Sarah Holton, European Central Bank | presentation |
| 2:00–2.30 pm |
Break |
Session 2: Monetary Policy and InflationSession Chair: Peter Karadi, European Central Bank |
|
| 2:30–3:25 pm |
Nominal Anchors and Real Consequences: Inflation Targeting, Debt, and Investment | videoNicolas Caramp, University of California, Davis | presentation Discussant: Andrea Prestipino, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System | presentation |
| 3:25–4:20 pm |
How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Housing Inflation? | paper | videoNeil Mehrotra, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis | presentation Discussant: George Nikolakoudis, Yale University | presentation |
| 4:20–4:35 pm |
Break |
| 4:35–5:20 pm |
Keynote | videoFiscal Inaction as Monetary Support | paperSession Chair: Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland George-Marios Angeletos, Stanley J. Gradowski Jr. Professor of Behavioral Macroeconomics, Northwestern University | presentation |
| 5:20–7:30 pm |
ReceptionFederal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland Room, 10th floor |
Friday, September 25, 2026 – Pianalto Auditorium
| 8:00–8:30 am |
Breakfast |
Session 3: Tariffs and Relative Price ShocksSession Chair: Sarah Holton, European Central Bank |
|
| 8:30–9:25 am |
Relative Price Shocks and Inflation | paper | videoAlexander Wolman, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond | presentation Discussant: Ernesto Pastén, Central Bank of Chile | presentation |
| 9:25–10:20 am |
The Effect of Tariffs on U.S. Producer Prices | paper | videoBin Wei, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta | presentation Discussant: Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada | presentation |
| 10:20–10:50 am |
Break |
| 10:50–11:45 am |
Pass-through Beyond the Border: Oligopoly, Networks, and Tariffs | paper | videoOmar Barbiero, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston | presentation Discussant: Mathieu Pedemonte, Inter-American Development Bank | presentation |
| 11:45 am–12:30 pm |
Keynote | videoGlobal Price Shocks and International Monetary CoordinationSession Chair: Damjan Pfajfar, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Veronica Guerrieri, Ronald E. Tarrson Distinguished Service Professor of Economics and Willard Graham Faculty Scholar, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business | presentation |
| 12:30–1:15 pm |
Lunch |
| 1:15–2:00 pm |
Poster SessionUnemployment Plucking and the Phillips Curve
Alex Grimaud, Österreichische Nationalbank and Technische Universität Wien The Generalized Calvo Friction
Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Online Shopping Access and Retail Pricing BehaviorFrancisca Sara-Zaror, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Perceived Monetary Policy Rule: Identification and Macroeconomic ImplicationsHusang Kim, University of Texas at Austin Inflation and Competition in an Old Keynesian ModelYang Liu, Boston College History-dependent monetary policy and the New Keynesian PuzzlesChristopher Gibbs, University of Sydney |
| 2:00–3:00 pm |
Policy Panel | videoModerator: David Wilcox, Peterson Institute and Bloomberg Economics Beth M. Hammack, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
| 3:00–3:20 pm |
Break |
Session 4: Experiments and LLMsSession Chair: Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
|
| 3:20–4:15 pm |
Anchors aweigh? The effect of communicating forecast uncertainty | paper | videoMatthew Naylor, Bank of England and University of Oxford | presentation Discussant: James Mitchell, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland | presentation |
| 4:15–5:10 pm |
LLM Survey Framework: Coverage, Reasoning, Dynamics, Identification | paper | videoShihan Xie, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign | presentation Discussant: Daniela Puzzello, Indiana University | presentation |
| 5:10 pm |
Closing RemarksDamjan Pfajfar, Vice President, Center for Inflation Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
Scientific Committee
Bernardo Candia, Ina Hajdini, Ed Knotek, Damjan Pfajfar, Robert Rich (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Elena Bobeica, Sarah Holton, Peter Karadi, Anton Nakov (ECB)
If you have a question, please contact inflation.conference@clev.frb.org