Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2025
Agenda
Questions?
About the conference
The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland will host the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2025 Conference on September 29–30 in person at the ECB. This annual conference brings together top researchers and policymakers from academia, central banks, and other policy institutions to present research findings related to inflation. Virtual attendance is available for individuals who are not presenting or serving as discussants.
Christiane Baumeister, University of Notre Dame, and Gauti B. Eggertsson, Brown University will present keynote addresses.
A policy panel comprising Philip R. Lane, ECB Executive Board member and Beth M. Hammack, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Dave Ramsden, Deputy Governor for Markets, Banking, Payments & Resolution at the Bank of England will provide remarks. The discussion will be moderated by Benoît Mojon, Head of the Economic Analysis Department at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
Scientific Committee
Ina Hajdini, Ed Knotek, Damjan Pfajfar, Robert Rich (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Elena Bobeica, Sarah Holton, Peter Karadi, Chiara Osbat (ECB)
Livestream to be posted on this page for both days of the conference. No registration necessary.
Agenda
Monday, September 29, 2025
European Central Bank, Frankfurt
Times displayed are in Central European Time (CET)
| 08:55 |
Welcome |
Session 1 – Pricing and Production NetworksSession Chair: Sarah Holton, European Central Bank |
|
| 09:00 |
Business Cycles with Pricing CascadesMishel Ghassibe, Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREi), Barcelona School of Economics and Universitat Pompeu Fabra Discussant: James Costain, Bank of Spain |
| 09:50 |
Uncertainty through the Production Network: Sectoral Origins and Macroeconomic ImplicationsGiacomo Candian, HEC Montréal and Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations (CIRANO) Discussant: Efrem Castelnuovo, University of Padova |
| 10:40 |
Supply Chain Networks and the Macroeconomic Expectations of FirmsIna Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Discussant: Tiziano Ropele, Bank of Italy |
| 11:30 |
Break |
| 11:50 |
KeynoteSession Chair: Chiara Osbat, European Central BankOil, Inflation Expectations and Household Characteristics: A Nonlinear Heterogenous Agent VAR ApproachChristiane Baumeister, University of Notre Dame |
| 12:50 |
Lunch and Poster Session I |
| 14:00 |
Policy PanelModerator: Benoît Mojon, Bank for International Settlements Beth M. Hammack, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
| 15:00 |
Break |
Session 2 – Inflation ExpectationsSession Chair: Damjan Pfajfar, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
|
| 15:20 |
The Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Expectations: The Distribution MattersGuido Ascari, Università degli Studi di Pavia, De Nederlandsche Bank and Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Discussant: Michael Ehrmann, European Central Bank |
| 16:10 |
Information and Macroeconomic Expectations: Global EvidenceMichael Weber, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Discussant: Fiorella De Fiore, Bank for International Settlements |
| 17:00 |
How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory CuesRaphael Schoenle, Brandeis University Discussant: Lena Dräger, Leibniz Universität Hannover |
| 19:00 |
End of Conference Day 1 |
Tuesday, September 30, 2025
European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main
Times displayed are in Central European Time (CET)
Session 3 – Firm Pricing TheoriesSession Chair: Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
|
| 09:00 |
Rationing Under Sticky PricesTom D. Holden, Deutsche Bundesbank Discussant: Andrey Alexandrov, Tor Vergata University of Rome |
| 09:50 |
Firm Wage Setting and the On-the-Job Search Limit Wage-Price SpiralsJacob P. Weber, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Discussant: Renato Faccini, Danmarks Nationalbank |
| 10:40 |
Break |
Session 4 – Trade and InflationSession Chair: Elena Bobeica, European Central Bank |
|
| 11:00 |
Trade Costs and Inflation DynamicsAlbert Queralto, Federal Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Discussant: Ine Van Robays, European Central Bank |
| 11:50 |
Trade Fragmentation, Inflationary Pressures and Monetary PolicyJenny Chan, Bank of England Discussant: Giancarlo Corsetti, European University Institute |
| 12:40 |
Lunch and Poster Session II |
| 14:00 |
KeynoteSession Chair: Peter Karadi, European Central Bank When do deficits fuel inflation?Gauti B. Eggertsson, Brown University |
| 15:00 |
Break |
Session 5 – Inflation and Monetary PolicySession Chair: Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
|
| 15:20 |
The Taming of the Skew: Asymmetric Inflation Risk and Monetary PolicyAndrea De Polis, University of Strathclyde and Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCOE), UK. Discussant: Matthias Rottner, Bank for International Settlements |
| 16:10 |
Monetary Policy across Inflation RegimesKaterina Petrova, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona School of Economics Discussant: Marco Lombardi, Bank for International Settlements |
| 17:00 |
Closing Remarks |
Poster Session I – September 29, 12:50 CET
Firms’ Inflation and Wage Expectations during the Inflation Surge
Erwan Gautier*, Banque de France and Université Paris-Dauphine
Frederique Savignac, Banque de France
Olivier Coibion, University of Texas at Austin and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
State-Dependent Sticky Expectations: Evidence and Theory
Kenneth Eva, University of Pennsylvania
Michael Lamla, University of Duisburg-Essen, and ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Damjan Pfajfar*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Product turnover and endogenous price flexibility in uncertain times
Makram Khalil, Deutsche Bundesbank
Vivien Lewis*, Deutsche Bundesbank and Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
Post-Pandemic Price Flexibility in the U.S.: Evidence and Implications for Price Setting Models
Hugh Montag, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Daniel Villar*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Cast out the pure? Inflation and relative prices on both sides of the Atlantic
Emanuele Franceschi, European Central Bank
Chiara Osbat, European Central Bank
Miles Parker*, European Central Bank
Poster Session II – September 30, 12:40 CET
Inflation, Inequality, and the Business Cycle
Clara Lindemann, Goethe University
Sofia Semik*, Goethe University
Mathias Trabandt, Goethe University, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), and Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
Firm Size, Heterogeneous Strategic Complementarities, and Real Rigidity
Takushi Kurozumi, Bank of Japan
Willem Van Zandweghe*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
The asymmetric and heterogeneous pass-through of input prices to firms’ expectations and decisions
Fiorella De Fiore, Bank for International Settlements and Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
Marco Lombardi*, Bank for International Settlements
Giacomo Mangiante, Bank of Italy
Financial constraints across the production network and the transmission of monetary policy
Alessandro De Sanctis, European Central Bank
Stefan Gebauer, European Central Bank
Federic Holm-Hadulla, European Central Bank
Matteo Sirani*, Bonn Graduate School of Economics
Why Do Supply Disruptions Lead to Inflation?
Thomas Kohler, Independent Scholar
Jean-Paul L'Huillier*, Brandeis University
Gregory Phelan, Williams College
Maximilian Weiß, University of Tübingen
*Indicates presenter
When and where
September 29–September 30, 2025
Frankfurt, Germany and Virtually