Robert W. Rich
Senior Economic and Policy Advisor
- BA,
- Economics,
- Fordham University,
- 1980
- MA,
- Economics,
- Northwestern University,
- 1982
- PhD,
- Economics,
- Brown University,
- 1988
Robert Rich is the director of the Center for Inflation Research and a senior economic and policy advisor in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Dr. Rich specializes in research related to macroeconomics and forecasting. He has published articles on a variety of topics, including the dynamics of price and wage inflation, the expectations formation process, the duration of labor contracts, the estimation of trend productivity growth, and coincident and leading indexes of regional economic activity.
Before joining the Bank in 2018, Dr. Rich was an assistant vice president in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he served as a founding editor and contributor to Liberty Street Economics, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s blog, and as the editor of US Economy in a Snapshot, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s monthly update of economic and financial developments. Prior to joining the New York Fed, he was an assistant professor of economics at Vanderbilt University.
Featured Publications
- “Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence” With Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek II, John Leer, Mathieu Pedemonte, and Raphael Schoenle, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2024.
- “Surveys of Professionals.” With Michael Peter Clements and Joseph Tracy. Handbook of Economic Expectations, 2022.
- “A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area.” With Joseph Tracy. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2021, 53(1): 233–253.
- “The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters.” With Joshua Abel, Joseph Song, and Joseph Tracy. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2016, (April–May): 533–550.
- “Tracking the New Economy: Using Growth Theory to Identify Changes in Trend Productivity.” With James A. Kahn. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007 (September): 1670–1701.
- “Structural Estimates of the US Sacrifice Ratio.” With Stephen Cecchetti. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2001, 19(4): 416–427. Discussed in Econometric Analysis, 5th Edition, edited by William H. Greene, 596–602, 2003.
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- “Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence” With Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek II, John Leer, Mathieu Pedemonte, and Raphael Schoenle, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2024.
- “Surveys of Professionals.” With Michael Peter Clements and Joseph Tracy. Handbook of Economic Expectations, 2022.
- “A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area.” With Joseph Tracy. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2021, 53(1): 233–253.
- “The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters.” With Joshua Abel, Joseph Song, and Joseph Tracy. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2016, (April–May): 533–550.
- “Early Contract Renegotiation: An Analysis of US Labor Contracts from 1970–1995.” With Joseph Tracy. Journal of Labor Economics, 2013, 31(4): 825–842.
- “The Relationships between Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertainty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts.” With Joseph Tracy. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2010, 92(1): 200–207.
- “Tracking the New Economy: Using Growth Theory to Identify Changes in Trend Productivity.” With James A. Kahn. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007 (September): 1670–1701.
- “Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations.” With Joseph Tracy. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004, 86(1): 270–287.
- “Using Regional Economic Indexes to Forecast Tax Bases: Evidence from New York.” with Jason Bram, Andrew Haughwout, James Orr, Rae Rosen, and Rebecca Sela. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2005, 87(4): 627–634.
- “Structural Estimates of the US Sacrifice Ratio.” With Stephen Cecchetti. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2001, 19(4): 416–427. Discussed in Econometric Analysis, 5th Edition, edited by William H. Greene, 596–602, 2003.
- “Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty: A Comment on Bomberger.” With J.S. Butler. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 1998 (August, Part 1): 411–419.
- “Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State–Switching Approach.” With Jennie E. Raymond. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 1997 (May): 193–213.
- “Inflation and the Asymmetric Effects of Money on Output Fluctuations.” With Wooheon Rhee. Journal of Macroeconomics, 1995 (Fall): 683–702.
- “Testing for the Exogeneity of Real Income in Models of the Poverty Process: Evidence from Post–Independence India.” With Clive Bell. Economics Letters, 1994 (December): 295–302.
- “Rural Poverty and Aggregate Agricultural Performance in Post–Independence India.” With Clive Bell. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1994 (May): 111–133.
- “Some Tests for Speculative Exchange Rate Bubbles Based on Unit Root Tests.” With Dimitris Kirikos. Spoudai, 1994 (January–June): 14–30.
- “Testing for Measurement Errors in Expectations from Survey Data: An Instrumental Variables Approach.” With Jennie E. Raymond and J.S. Butler. Economics Letters, 1993, 43(1): 5–10.
- “The Relationship between Forecast Dispersion and Forecast Uncertainty: Evidence from a Survey Data–ARCH Model.” With Jennie E. Raymond and J.S. Butler. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1992 (April–June): 131–148.
- “Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models.” With Jennie E. Raymond and J.S. Butler. Economics Letters, 1991 (February): 179–185.
- “Another Look at the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations Data.” Applied Economics, 1990 (April): 477–485. Reviewed in “Research on Forecasting” in International Journal of Forecasting, 1990 (October): 445–446.
- “Testing the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts from Survey Data: Another Look at the SRC Expected Price Change Data.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1989 (November): 682–686.
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Conference Proceedings
- “Distinguishing Trends from Cycles in Productivity.” With James A. Kahn. In Monetary Policy in a Changing Environment, Bank for International Settlements, Conference Papers, 2003, 19: 443–461.
- “A Look at the US Inflation Puzzle.” With Cara S. Lown. In Monetary Policy and the Inflation Process, Bank for International Settlements, Conference Papers, 1997, 4 (July): 193–219.
Other Federal Reserve Publications
- “The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG).” With Marlene Amstad and Simon Potter. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, December 2017, 1–32.
- “The Parts Are More Than the Whole: Separating Goods and Services to Predict Inflation.” With Richard Peach and M. Henry Linder. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2013, 19(7).
- “How Does Slack Influence Inflation?”” With Richard Peach and Anna Cororaton. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2011, 17(3).
- “Improving Survey Measurement of Household Inflation Expectations.” With Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Wilbert van Der Klaauw, Simon Potter, and Giorgio Topa. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, August/September 2010.
- “Is the Worst Over? Economic Indexes and the Course of the Recession in New York and New Jersey.” With Jason Bram, James Orr, Rae Rosen, and Joseph Song. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, September 2009.
- “A Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation.” With Charles Steindel. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, December 2007, 19–38.
- “Tracking Productivity in Real Time.” With James A. Kahn. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, November 2006.
- “The Historical and Recent Behavior of Goods and Services Inflation.” With Alexis Antoniades and Richard Peach. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, December 2004, 19–31.
- “Is There an Inflation Puzzle?” With Cara S. Lown. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, December 1997, 51–69.
- “Leading Economic Indexes for New York State and New Jersey.” With James Orr and Rae Rosen. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, March 2001, 73–94.
- “Understanding the Recent Behavior of US Inflation.” With Donald Rissmiller. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economic and Finance, July 2000.
- “Two New Indexes Offer a Broad View of Economic Activity in the New York–New Jersey Region.” With James Orr and Rae Rosen. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance: Second District Highlights, October 1999.
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Center for Inflation Research
The Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research is the hub for “all things inflation,” providing a combination of research, analyses and data, background and commentary, and an annual conference series dedicated to inflation.