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Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2026
September 24–25, 2026
Registration deadline to attend in person: September 10, 2026.
Registration to attend virtually is open through the conference.
The Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank (ECB) will host the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2026 Conference on September 24–25 in person at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Presenters and discussants will appear in person at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Audience attendance will be virtual. Registration will open July 24, 2026.
Veronica Guerrieri, University of Chicago, Booth, and George-Marios Angeletos, Northwestern University, will present keynote addresses.
A policy panel moderated by David Wilcox, Director of US Economic Research at Bloomberg Economics, will feature remarks from Beth M. Hammack, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; Boris Vujcic, ECB Vice President; and Jonathan Heath, Deputy Governor of Banco de Mexico.
Agenda
All times listed are in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
Thursday, September 24, 2026 – Pianalto Auditorium
| 8:00–8:45 am |
Registration and Continental Breakfast |
| 8:45–8:50 am |
WelcomeEdward S. Knotek II, Senior Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
| 8:50–9:00 am |
Opening RemarksBeth M. Hammack, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
Session 1: Inflation and Firm BehaviorSession Chair: Oscar Arce, European Central Bank |
|
| 9:00–9:55 am |
How Firms Form Beliefs and the Implications for InflationHugo Monnery, Harvard University Discussant: Michael Weber, Purdue University |
| 9:55–10:50 am |
The Future in Today's Prices: Evidence from a Survey of U.S. FirmsJenny Tang, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Discussant: Carlos Carvalho, Kapitalo Investments and PUC Rio |
| 10:50–11:20 am |
Break |
| 11:20 am–12:15 pm |
Prices and Monetary Policy: The Role of Financial ConstraintsMichael Bauer Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Discussant: TBA |
| 12:15–1:00 pm |
Lunch |
| 1:00–2:00 pm |
Short Presentation Session: Inflation and Inflation ExpectationsSession Chair: Robert W. Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Inflation Inattention on the Production Network: Firm-Level Evidence and Macro Implications
Rafael Gonçalves, Princeton University People's understanding of macroeconomic shocksJessica Piccolo, University of Padova The Causal Effects of Tariff Uncertainty on Consumers' Macroeconomic Expectations and Spending Plans
Bernardo Candia, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Beware of large shocks! A non-parametric structural inflation model
Sarah Holton, European Central Bank |
| 2:00–2.30 pm |
Break |
Session 2: Monetary Policy and InflationSession Chair: TBA |
|
| 2:30–3:25 pm |
Nominal Anchors and Real Consequences: Inflation Targeting, Debt, and InvestmentNicolas Caramp, University of California, Davis Discussant: Andrea Prestipino, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System |
| 3:25–4:20 pm |
How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Housing Inflation?Neil Mehrotra, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Discussant: George Nikolakoudis, University of Chicago |
| 4:20–4:35 pm |
Break |
| 4:35–5:20 pm |
KeynoteSession Chair: Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland George-Marios Angeletos, Stanley J. Gradowski Jr. Professor of Behavioral Macroeconomics, Northwestern University |
| 5:20–7:30 pm |
ReceptionFederal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland Room, 10th floor |
Friday, September 25, 2026 – Pianalto Auditorium
| 8:00–8:30 am |
Breakfast |
Session 3: Tariffs and Relative Price ShocksSession Chair: Sarah Holton, European Central Bank |
|
| 8:30–9:25 am |
Relative Price Shocks and InflationFrancisco Ruge-Murcia, McGill University Discussant: Ernesto Pastén, Central Bank of Chile |
| 9:25–10:20 am |
The Effect of Tariffs on U.S. Producer PricesBin Wei, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Discussant: Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada |
| 10:20–10:50 am |
Break |
| 10:50–11:45 am |
The Contribution of Imports to Domestic PricesOmar Barbiero, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Discussant: Mathieu Pedemonte, Inter-American Development Bank |
| 11:45 am–12:30 pm |
KeynoteGlobal Price Shocks and International Monetary CoordinationSession Chair: TBA Veronica Guerrieri, Ronald E. Tarrson Distinguished Service Professor of Economics and Willard Graham Faculty Scholar, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business |
| 12:30–1:15 pm |
Lunch |
| 1:15–2:00 pm |
Poster SessionUnemployment Plucking and the Phillips Curve
Alex Grimaud, Österreichische Nationalbank and Technische Universiteit Wien Fixing the New Keynesian Model
Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Online Shopping Access and Retail Pricing BehaviorFrancisca Sara-Zaror, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Perceived Monetary Policy Rule: Identification and Macroeconomic ImplicationsHusang Kim, University of Texas at Austin Inflation and Competition in an Old Keynesian ModelYang Liu, Boston College Resolving New Keynesian PuzzlesChristopher Gibbs, University of Sydney |
| 2:00–3:00 pm |
Policy PanelModerator: David Wilcox, Peterson Institute and Bloomberg Economics Beth M. Hammack, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
| 3:00–3:20 pm |
Break |
Session 4: Experiments and LLMsSession Chair: Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
|
| 3:20–4:15 pm |
Anchors aweigh? The effect of communicating forecast uncertaintyMatthew Naylor, Bank of England and University of Oxford Discussant: James Mitchell, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
| 4:15–5:10 pm |
LLM Survey Framework: Coverage, Reasoning, Dynamics, IdentificationShihan Xie, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Discussant: Sophia Kazinnik, Stanford University |
| 5:10 pm |
Closing RemarksDamjan Pfajfar, Vice President, Center for Inflation Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland |
Scientific Committee
Bernardo Candia, Ina Hajdini, Ed Knotek, Damjan Pfajfar, Robert Rich (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Elena Bobeica, Sarah Holton, Peter Karadi, Anton Nakov (ECB)
If you have a question, please contact inflation.conference@clev.frb.org