Center for Inflation Research
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is pleased to announce the launch of the Center for Inflation Research.
The Goal of the Center
The goal of the Center is to improve the understanding of policymakers, researchers, and the public about inflation and the factors that influence its behavior. The Center seeks to do this through a combination of expanded research, enhanced external communications detailed below, and a more visible annual, rather than biennial, research conference series on inflation. In addition, an advisory council of leading experts from the United States and abroad will integrate external perspectives into our efforts to make the Center a leading resource for readers whose interests range from being informed about inflation developments to learning about recent theoretical and empirical work analyzing the inflation process. A preview of some of what’s to come:
- More research and analyses focused on inflation via our Economic Commentary series, research working papers, and shorter descriptive pieces
- A redesigned website with more data and indicators on national price trends, with commentary highlighting key series and providing details about their use and how they are constructed
- To complement the Cleveland Fed’s weighted median CPI and trimmed-mean CPI, the inclusion of additional measures of underlying inflation, such as the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean PCE inflation rate and the New York Fed’s Underlying Inflation Gauge
- Ready access to other surveys providing measures of inflation expectations, such as the US Survey of Professional Forecasters and the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
- The next installment of the Cleveland Fed’s Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics conference series will be held May 16–17, 2019—see the conference page for more information.
- The Center will sponsor a session on inflation at the 2019 meeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) being held at Columbia University on July 19–20, 2019—see the conference website for more information.
- The Center will be helping the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) to organize a session on inflation and price setting at the 2020 ASSA annual meeting to be held January 3-5, 2020, in San Diego. Submission details and the call for papers are available through the CEBRA website. The submission deadline is May 15, 2019.
- A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area
- Digging into the Downward Trend in Consumer Inflation Expectations
- Inflation: Waiting for the Upturn
Forecasting and Nowcasting
- Combining Survey Long-Run Forecasts and Nowcasts with BVAR Forecasts Using Relative Entropy
- Have Inflation Dynamics Changed?
- The Likelihood of 2 Percent Inflation in the Next Three Years
Inflation and Monetary Policy
- All Fluctuations Are Not Created Equal: The Differential Roles of Transitory versus Persistent Changes in Driving Historical Monetary Policy
- Inflation, Debt, and Default
- Mutable Economic Laws and Calculating Unemployment and Output Gaps—An Application to Taylor Rules
- Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2019
- Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics Conference 2018
- 2016 Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference
Median CPI and Inflation Measurement
- An Assessment of the ISM Manufacturing Price Index for Inflation Forecasting
- Recent Inflation Trends
- Tracking Trend Inflation: Nonseasonally Adjusted Variants of the Median and Trimmed-Mean CPI