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Is Household Debt Inhibiting the Recovery?

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Forecasting short-run economic activity is a tenuous business. Though all economic contractions and expansions have certain well-defined characteristics, history never completely replicates itself. Thus, the particulars of past economic downturns are distinct, and the task of forecasters is something of an art — that of identifying the relevant caveat in the current economic outlook.

Forecasting short-run economic activity is a tenuous business. Though all economic contractions and expansions have certain well-defined characteristics, history never completely replicates itself. Thus, the particulars of past economic downturns are distinct, and the task of forecasters is something of an art — that of identifying the relevant caveat in the current economic outlook.


Suggested citation: Altig, David, Susan M. Byrne, and Katherine A. Samolyk, 1992. "Is Household Debt Inhibiting the Recovery?" Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary, 02.01.1992.

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