Forecasting short-run economic activity is a tenuous business. Though all economic contractions and expansions have certain well-defined characteristics, history never completely replicates itself.
Once again the United States has been jolted by an oil price shock. Since Iraq’s August 2 invasion of Kuwait, the cost of crude has soared as high as $41 a barrel.
Between the mid-1960s and early 1980s, the age distribution of the U.S. labor force was changed dramatically by the inrush of the baby-boom generation.