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Indicators & Data

Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations (SoFIE)

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Last updated
May 11, 2026

Next update
August 10, 2026

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Center for Inflation Research

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  • Description: The Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) is a large quarterly representative panel of firms in the manufacturing and services sectors that was created to measure inflation expectations of chief executive officers (CEOs) in the United States.
  • What do we collect? Each quarter the survey captures respondents’ beliefs for expected CPI inflation over the next 12 months. Once per year it asks about beliefs for average CPI inflation over the next 5 years, CPI inflation over the last 12 months, the Federal Reserve’s inflation target, and the probability that CPI inflation over the next 12 months will exceed 5%.
  • Table 1: Expected CPI inflation over the next 12 months
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2018.23.21.7
    2018.32.91.1
    2018.43.21.1
    2019.13.00.9
    2019.21.90.5
    2019.32.40.5
    2019.41.90.4
    2020.12.10.4
    2020.21.81.0
    2020.31.70.9
    2020.42.20.6
    2021.12.30.7
    2021.22.90.8
    2021.35.22.8
    2021.45.22.2
    2022.15.72.4
    2022.27.22.5
    2022.37.02.9
    2022.47.32.1
    2023.16.02.0
    2023.25.01.6
    2023.34.31.7
    2023.44.21.5
    2024.13.41.2
    2024.23.81.4
    2024.33.41.3
    2024.43.81.8
    2025.13.20.9
    2025.23.91.8
    2025.33.51.3
    2025.43.30.8
    2026.13.10.7
    2026.23.71.1
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Table 2A: Perceived Federal Reserve inflation target
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2018.22.40.7
    2019.22.20.6
    2020.21.70.6
    2021.22.60.7
    2022.23.72.1
    2023.23.11.3
    2024.22.40.6
    2025.22.60.6
    2026.22.40.7
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
    Table 2A.1: Confidence in achieving perceived Federal Reserve inflation target
    DateNot confident at allNot very confidentSomewhat confidentConfidentVery confidentDon't know
    2026.22.819.538.523.09.86.4
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Table 2B: Estimated CPI inflation over the past 12 months
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2018.32.71.3
    2019.32.10.4
    2020.32.30.6
    2021.34.52.9
    2022.38.32.8
    2023.35.62.1
    2024.34.02.0
    2025.33.41.2
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Table 2C: Expected average CPI inflation over the next 5 years
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2018.43.41.7
    2019.42.20.8
    2020.43.20.7
    2021.44.93.9
    2022.45.42.6
    2023.43.71.7
    2024.43.61.8
    2025.43.31.5
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
    Table 2C.1: Optimal inflation rate over the next 5 to 10 years
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2025.42.50.7
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Table 2D: Probability that CPI inflation over the next 12 months will exceed 5%
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2019.129.224.6
    2020.111.315.4
    2021.117.725.4
    2022.154.234.0
    2023.149.935.3
    2024.121.927.7
    2025.122.525.2
    2026.114.221.3
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
    Table 2D.1: Probability that CPI inflation over the next 12 months will be below 1%
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2026.12.58.6
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Table 3AC.1: Expectation of change in average prices for your firm
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2025.43.92.4
    2026.23.32.6
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
    Table 3AC.2: Expectation of change in average unit cost for your firm
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2025.43.32.2
    2026.23.52.2
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Table 3B.1: Expectation for change in employment in your firm
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2025.32.24.4
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
    Table 3B.2: Expectation for change in average wages in your firm
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2025.32.92.4
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
    Table 3B.3: Expectation for change in R&D spending in your firm
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2025.33.13.7
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Table 3D: Predicted average economic growth rate
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2026.13.21.4
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
    Table 3D.1: Predicted outlook in your sector
    DateMuch more uncertainMore uncertainSame uncertaintyLess uncertainMuch less uncertainN/A
    2026.12.933.128.624.43.47.7
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Data Downloads

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Background

About the Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations

The Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) was created by Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko.  The research was funded in part by National Science Foundation grant 1530467. Ongoing survey funding is provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Further details can be found in the references cited under Related Research.

Microdata questions should be sent to clev.data@clev.frb.org.

  • The Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) is a nationally representative, quarterly survey of chief executive officers (CEOs) and other top executives started by Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko in the second quarter of 2018. Survey data are collected during the first month of each quarter (January, April, July, and October). The dataset contains a limited number of characteristics about each respondent’s firm, including sector, industry, and size. The surveyed firms represent various industries within either the manufacturing sector or the services sector. Within the manufacturing sector, companies are classified into food and drink, textiles and clothing, electrical, chemicals and plastics, transport, timber and paper, basic metals, mechanical engineering, and other manufacturing. Within the services sector, the companies are classified into hotels and restaurants, transport and storage, post and telecommunication, financial intermediation, renting and business activities, and other services. Additionally, firms are classified as small, with 1 to 19 employees; medium, 20 to 249 employees; or large, 250 or more employees. Firms are repeatedly sampled in the survey, providing a panel dimension at the individual-firm level.

    Questions

    SoFIE is a set of five questions asked as part of a longer privately-run survey that is administered by an external company. In each quarter, respondents are asked the following question:

    Question 1

    Question (1), asked each survey round: “What do you think will be the inflation rate (for the Consumer Price Index) over the next 12 months? Please provide an answer in an annual percentage rate.”

    Question 2

    Question (2A), asked each April: “What annual inflation rate do you think the U.S. Federal Reserve is trying to achieve on average?”

    Follow-up (2A.1): “How confident are you that the U.S. Federal Reserve will achieve this inflation rate in five years?”

    • Not confident at all
    • Not very confident
    • Somewhat confident
    • Confident
    • Very Confident
    • Don't know

    Question (2B), asked each July: “What do you think the inflation rate (for the Consumer Price Index) has been over the last 12 months? Please provide an answer in annual percentage rate.”

    Question (2C), asked each October: “What do you think will be the average inflation rate (for the Consumer Price Index) over the next 5 years? Please provide an average annual percentage rate.”

    Follow-up (2C.1): “Looking further ahead, what inflation rate do you think is optimal for the U.S. economy over the five-year period between five and ten years from now? Please provide an average annual percentage rate.”

    Question (2D), asked each January: “What do you think is the probability that the annual inflation rate (for the Consumer Price Index) over the next 12 months will…”

    (2D): exceed 5%: _______

    (2D.1): be below 1%: _______

    Question 3

    Question (3AC), asked each April and October: “Twelve months from now, what do you expect will be the change in…”

    (3AC.1) average prices for your firm (relative to the current level; in percent): ______

    (3AC.2) average unit cost for your firm (relative to the current level; in percent):_____

    Question (3B), asked each July: “Twelve months from now, what do you expect will be the change in…”

    (3B.1) employment in your firm (relative to the current level; in percent): _________

    (3B.2) average wages in your firm (relative to the current level; in percent): ________

    (3B.3) R&D spending in your firm (relative to the current level; in percent): __________

    Question (3D), asked each January: “What do you think will be the average economic growth rate (as measured by the real GDP growth rate) over the next 12 months? Please provide an answer in annual percentage rate.”

    Follow-up (3D.1): “Compared to the average uncertainty you experience, how would you characterize the outlook in your sector over the next 12 months?”

    • Much more uncertain
    • More uncertain
    • Same uncertainty
    • Less uncertain
    • Much less uncertain
    • N/A

  • For a complete and detailed methodology for SoFIE, download the PDF.

Suggested Citation

“Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations (SoFIE).” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-sofie . Accessed on May 14, 2026.

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Center for Inflation Research

The Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research is the hub for “all things inflation,” providing a combination of research, analyses and data, background and commentary, and an annual conference series dedicated to inflation.

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Related Research

  • Economic Commentary: Expanding the Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations
  • Economic Commentary: The Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations
  • Candia, Bernardo, Olivier Coibion, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2021. "The Inflation Expectations of U.S. Firms: Evidence from a new survey," NBER Working Paper 28836. (PDF)
  • Candia, Bernardo, Olivier Coibion, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2020. "Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents," in Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy, Economic Policy Symposium (Jackson Hole, WY) Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. (PDF)
  • Coibion, Olivier, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Saten Kumar, and Mathieu Pedemonte, 2020. "Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?" Journal of International Economics 124: 103297. (PDF)