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Additional Research Resources
The selected economic research data, code, and/or models on this page are from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s publications, including working papers, Economic Commentaries, District Data Briefs, or external academic journal articles, published by one of our economists. The data are updated by the authors and are not an official product of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. They are subject to change without notice.
See also our official indicators and data.
| Topic | Publication Title | Summary | Data | Frequency | Bank Author |
| Labor economics | Advance Layoff Notices and Aggregate Job Loss | We collect data from advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act in the United States. We aggregate these data into an unbalanced, monthly panel of the state-level number of workers affected by WARN notices. We also aggregate this panel to a national-level indicator of job loss (the “WARN factor”) using a dynamic factor model. | openICPSR | Twice per month | Pawel Krolikowski & Kurt Lunsford |
| Inflation | Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations | We provide an indirect way of measuring consumer inflation expectations: Given consumers’ expectations about developments in prices of goods and services during the next 12 months, we ask them how their incomes would have to change to make them equally well-off relative to their current situation such that they could buy the same amount of goods and services as they can today. We report indirect consumer inflation expectations weekly for the US and monthly across 15 other countries. | CEBRA | Weekly US measures and monthly international measures | Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek II, & Robert Rich |
| Econometrics, modeling, and forecasting; Business cycles | Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US | We provide reconciled historical estimates of “true” GDP at a monthly frequency. This is achieved using a Bayesian mixed frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) involving GDP on the expenditure- (GDPE) and income-sides (GDPI), unobserved true GDP, and monthly indicators of short-term economic activity. | openICPSR | Monthly | James Mitchell |
| Recessions, Econometrics, modeling, and forecasting; State and local economies | Regional Economic Sentiment: Constructing Quantitative Estimates from the Beige Book and Testing Their Ability to Forecast Recessions | We use natural language processing methods to quantify the sentiment expressed in the Federal Reserve's anecdotal summaries of current economic conditions in the national and 12 Federal Reserve District-level economies as published eight times per year in the Beige Book since 1970. | openICPSR | Each 6-8 weeks, following Beige Book Publication | Christian Garciga & James Mitchell |
| Monetary policy | Strained Relations, US Foreign-Exchange Operations and Monetary Policy in the Twentieth Century | This project traces the evolution of US policies regarding foreign-currency market interventions and their interactions with US monetary policy from the Second Bank of the United States to their demise in early 2000s. | Federal Reserve System and US Treasury Foreign Exchange Transactions 1961 – 1997 | No updates planned | Owen F. Humpage |
| Econometrics, modeling, and forecasting; Economic growth | We provide estimates of trend labor productivity growth in the US nonfarm business sector over the postwar period. This is achieved using a Markov regime-switching model that allows productivity to alternate between a high- and low growth regime. We also provide probabilistic assessments of the likelihood of being in the low-growth regime as well as forecasts of productivity growth over a five-year horizon. | Trend Productivity Update | Twice per quarter | Robert Rich | |
| Urban economic conditions; State and local economies | Urban and Regional Migration Estimates | This project provides two sets of estimates for the major US metro areas. The first measures net migration to and from urban neighborhoods. The second breaks down net migration to other regions by four region types: (1) high-cost metros, (2) affordable, large metros, (3) midsized metros, and (4) small metros and rural areas. | openICPSR | Quarterly | Stephan Whitaker |
Related resources
Indicators and Data
The Cleveland Fed maintains a broad range of indicators and datasets that are available for download, including median CPI, median PCE inflation, inflation expectations, yield curve and GDP growth, and simple monetary policy rules.
Economists
Meet our team of economists and researchers and learn about the range of work they do at the Bank—from economic research and forecasting, to regional analysis and community development.