Midyear Report of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable
Looking into the future is a perilous duty, and it is wise to be humble about our abilities lest we give the impression we know more than we do. The difficulties in accurately assessing the economy’s future, if not its current state, stem from our inability to grasp the broad scope of business activity and to anticipate the seemingly random patterns that aggregate measures of the economy frequently follow.
The views authors express in Economic Commentary are theirs and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The series editor is Tasia Hane. This paper and its data are subject to revision; please visit clevelandfed.org for updates.
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