Michael F. Bryan

This paper considers the evidence of "near-rationality," as described by Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (2000).

This paper investigates the use of trimmed means as high-frequency estimators of inflation.

An analysis of limited-information estimators as measures of core inflation, showing that these estimators have a higher correlation with past money growth and deliver improved forecasts of future inflation relative to the Consumer Price Index.

An analysis of how the money supply process can affect the cross-covariance structure of inflation and monetary growth.

Some items that make up the CPI change prices frequently, while others are slow to change. We explore whether these two sets of prices-sticky and flexible-provide insight on different aspects of the inflation process.

Say you need an accurate forecast of future GDP or inflation. What’s your best bet—the economist who was hot last year or the forecaster in the middle? The record indicates it’s tough to consistently beat the median prediction.

On a small group of islands in theSouth Pacific, the people use a“money” so astonishing it often getsmentioned in classroom discussionson the subject.

You might not have heard of the trime, the tiny 3-cent silver coin minted in the United States from1851 to 1873, but it may have played a big role in shaping the kind of money you carry around in your wallet today.

The Federal Reserve System is America’s uneasy compromise between our wariness of concentrated financial power and our desire to promote efficiency in our national payments system.

Most of us, from the general public to professional economists, use the term inflation pretty loosely.

That men and women occasionally see things differently is not a remarkable observation. But that the sexes could report vastly different perspectives on the rate at which prices are rising over a long period of time is astonishing.

In this Commentary, we document that people report very different perceptions and predictions of inflation depending upon their income, education, age, race, and gender—a strange finding that may provide an important clue.

Alexander Hamilton is perhaps the least known and most misunderstood of our nation’s founders.

A historical look at the origin and uses of the word inflation.

We should demand rigorous adherence to a standard when it comes to our measure of value - the dollar.

Although a majority of U.S. lawmakers now favor the goal of balancing the federal budget within the next decade, there is little consensus on how to achieve it.

Although economists share a common science, their roles in society vary a great deal. Academic economists expand our understanding of the purpose and operation of markets. Government economists use this knowledge to guide policies.

Looking into the future is a perilous duty, and it is wise to be humble about our abilities lest we give the impression we know more than we do.

Uncertainties always cloud the economic horizon, and current conditions are no exception to that rule.

Following a string of small advances that began early last year, the pace of economic expansion, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), picked up in the first quarter.

Advanced economies are characterized by long-run trends in the level of gross domestic product (GDP) that can be predicted with virtual certainty.

Price movements are the channel through which market information is transmitted. An increase in one price relative to others is the signal that directs resources and rations consumption.

In December 1987, GM closed five auto assembly plants in the United States, including one in Norwood, Ohio.

It has been suggested that the purpose of economic forecasting is to make weather forecasters look good by comparison.

Soaring oil prices have caused speculation about the prospects for a national recession this winter.

Between the mid-1960s and early 1980s, the age distribution of the U.S. labor force was changed dramatically by the inrush of the baby-boom generation.

The record of recent economic expansions shows that work effort has supplanted productivity as a source of growth.

The U.S. economy has been awash in foreign investment for nearly the entire decade of the 19805.

Alice and the Dormouse in Lewis Carroll’s classic story offer a lesson about human nature that can be applied to our economy.

In the last 10 years, the world auto market has been undergoing possibly the most dramatic transformation since assembly line production was introduced in 1913.

Some policymakers continue to favor the idea of using trade barriers to protect US. manufacturing industries. In some measure, this view is based on a perception of underlying weakness in the US. manufacturing sector.

The late 1960s and the 1970s were, by most conventional measures, profitable years for American farmers. The domestic economy experienced relatively strong growth.

The United States is currently experiencing the strongest economic recovery since the Korean War, with virtually no increase in the rate of inflation.

In recent years, many ailing US. industries have blamed their ill health on foreign competition and have sought a cure in limiting the flow of imports.

The virtue of free trade is one concept that nearly every economist advocates.

Since the late 1970s, the U.S. auto market has suffered a severe decline. Total auto sales (domestic and foreign) have fallen from the highs of over 11 million units in 1977 and 1978 to an anemic average of 8.5 million units since 1980.

On February 19, 1982, the three largest retail food chains in the Cleveland area were fined $4.2 million by a federal court for criminal price-fixing, after entering pleas of no contest to the charges against them.

Although the unemployment insurance (UI) system in the United States evolved through the prompting of the federal government, the UI system functions as a collage of 53 individual state programs.

The United States is embarking on an unprecedented increase. in peacetime military spending. The program has prompted heated discussions about the implications of defense spending for real output, employment, and prices.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is commonly referred to as "the rate of inflation" or as "the cost of living in the United States."

In reevaluating the evidence of seasonality in prices, the authors find that seasonal price movements have become more prominent in the relatively stable inflation environment that has prevailed since 1982.

An examination of the potential bias that results from the expenditure-based weighting scheme CPI employs (weighting bias) and from persistent errors in measuring certain prices (measurement bias). This bias makes CPI a bad measure of inflation.

A comparison of the performance of forecasts by economists (the Livingston survey), households (the Michigan Survey of Consumer Finances), and a time series model (ARIMA).