Robert W. Rich

Person

Areas of Expertise macroeconomics, time series econometrics, expectations formation, inflation dynamics

BA,
Economics,
Fordham University,
1980

MA,
Economics,
Northwestern University,
1982

PhD,
Economics,
Brown University,
1988

Robert Rich is the director of the Center for Inflation Research and a senior economic and policy advisor in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Dr. Rich specializes in research related to macroeconomics and forecasting. He has published articles on a variety of topics, including the dynamics of price and wage inflation, the expectations formation process, the duration of labor contracts, the estimation of trend productivity growth, and coincident and leading indexes of regional economic activity.

Before joining the Bank in 2018, Dr. Rich was an assistant vice president in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he served as a founding editor and contributor to Liberty Street Economics, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s blog, and as the editor of US Economy in a Snapshot, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s monthly update of economic and financial developments. Prior to joining the New York Fed, he was an assistant professor of economics at Vanderbilt University.

Featured Publications

“Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence” With Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek II, John Leer, Mathieu Pedemonte, and Raphael Schoenle, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2024.
“Surveys of Professionals.” With Michael Peter Clements and Joseph Tracy. Handbook of Economic Expectations, 2022.
“A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area.” With Joseph Tracy. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2021, 53(1): 233–253.
“The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters.” With Joshua Abel, Joseph Song, and Joseph Tracy. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2016, (April–May): 533–550.
“Tracking the New Economy: Using Growth Theory to Identify Changes in Trend Productivity.” With James A. Kahn. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007 (September): 1670–1701.
“Structural Estimates of the US Sacrifice Ratio.” With Stephen Cecchetti. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2001, 19(4): 416–427. Discussed in Econometric Analysis, 5th Edition, edited by William H. Greene, 596–602, 2003.

Working Papers

Working Paper

Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data

Keshav Dogra Sebastian Heise Edward S. Knotek II Brent Meyer Robert W. Rich Raphael S. Schoenle Giorgio Topa Wilbert van der Klaauw Wändi Bruine de Bruin

06.02.2023 | WP 23-14

We examine businesses' price-setting practices via open-ended interviews and in a quantitative survey module with business contacts from the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Cleveland, and New York in December 2022 and January 2023. Businesses indicated that their prices were strongly influenced by demand, a desire to maintain steady profit margins, and wages and labor costs. Survey respondents expected reduced growth in costs and prices of about 5 percent on average over the next year. Backward-looking, forward-looking, and hypothetical scenarios reveal average cost-price passthrough of around 60 percent, with meaningful heterogeneity across firms.

Topics: Business cycles, Inflation

Working Paper

Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation

Ina Hajdini Edward S. Knotek II John Leer Mathieu Pedemonte Robert W. Rich Raphael S. Schoenle

03.27.2023 | WP 22-21R

We implement a novel methodology to disentangle two-way causality in inflation and income expectations in a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers. We find a 20 percent passthrough from expected inflation to expected income growth, but no statistically significant effect in the other direction. Passthrough is higher for higher-income individuals and men. Higher inflation expectations increase consumers’ likelihood to search for higher-paying new jobs. In a calibrated search-and-matching model, dampened responses of wages to demand and supply shocks translate into greater output fluctuations. The survey results and model analysis provide a labor market channel for why people dislike inflation.

Topics: Labor economics, Inflation

Working Paper

Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence

Ina Hajdini Edward S. Knotek II John Leer Mathieu Pedemonte Robert W. Rich Raphael S. Schoenle

11.22.2022 | WP 22-35

Based on indirect utility theory, we introduce a novel methodology of measuring inflation expectations indirectly. This methodology starts at the individual level, asking consumers about the change in income required to buy the same amounts of goods and services one year ahead. Analytically, our methodology possesses smaller ex-post aggregate inflation forecast errors relative to forecasts based on conventional survey questions. We ask this question in a large-scale, high-frequency survey of consumers in the US and 14 countries, and we show that indirect consumer inflation expectations perform well along several empirical dimensions. Exploiting the geographically detailed, high-frequency variation in the data, we then show that individual experiences matter for inflation expectations, in a nuanced way. For example, age and gender have different effects internationally, while individual inflation and local experiences are generally highly relevant. In an application to gasoline price changes, we identify large effects of experienced gasoline price changes on inflation expectations, characterized by both overreaction and persistence.

Topics: Inflation, Econometrics modeling and forecasting

Working Paper

Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth

Robert W. Rich Joseph Tracy

08.01.2022 | WP 22-22

This paper focuses on the implications of alternative methods of aggregating individual wage data for the behavior of economy-wide wage growth. The analysis is motivated by evidence of significant heterogeneity in individual wage growth and its cyclicality. Because of this heterogeneity, the choice of aggregation will affect the properties of economy-wide wage growth measures. To assess the importance of this consideration, we provide a decomposition of wage growth into aggregation effects and composition effects and use the decomposition to compare growth in an average wage—specifically average hourly earnings—to a measure of average wage growth from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. We find that aggregation effects largely account for average hourly earnings growth being persistently lower and less cyclical than average wage growth over the period 1990-2015, with these effects reflecting a disproportionate weighting of high-earning workers. The analysis also indicates that composition effects now play a more limited role in the cyclicality of wage growth compared to results reported in previous studies for earlier time periods.

Topics: Labor economics, Econometrics modeling and forecasting

Working Paper

Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation

Ina Hajdini Edward S. Knotek II John Leer Mathieu Pedemonte Robert W. Rich Raphael S. Schoenle

06.23.2022 | WP 22-21

Using a novel experimental setup, we study the direction of causality between consumers’ inflation expectations and their income growth expectations. In a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we find that the rate of passthrough from expected inflation to expected income growth is incomplete, on the order of 20 percent. There is no statistically significant effect going in the other direction. Passthrough varies systematically with demographic and socioeconomic factors, with greater passthrough for higher-income individuals than lower-income individuals, although it is still incomplete. Higher inflation expectations also cause consumers to report a higher probability that they will search for a new job that pays more. Using our survey findings to calibrate a search-and-matching model, we find that dampened responses of real wages to demand and supply shocks translate into greater fluctuations in output. Taken together, the survey results and model exercises provide a labor market channel to explain why people dislike inflation.

Topics: Labor economics, Inflation

Working Paper

Greater Than the Sum of the Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations

Alexander M. Dietrich Edward S. Knotek II Kristian Ove R. Myrseth Robert W. Rich Raphael S. Schoenle Michael Weber

06.22.2022 | WP 22-20

Using novel survey evidence on consumer inflation expectations disaggregated by personal consumption expenditure (PCE) categories, we document the paradox that consumers' aggregate inflation expectations usually exceed any individual category expectation. We explore procedures for aggregating category inflation expectations, and find that the inconsistency between aggregate and aggregated inflation expectations rises with subjective uncertainty and is systematically related to socioeconomic characteristics. Overall, our results are inconsistent with the notion that consumers' aggregate inflation expectations comprise an expenditure-weighted sum of category beliefs. Moreover, aggregated inflation expectations explain a greater share of planned consumer spending than aggregate inflation expectations.

Topics: Inflation

Working Paper

Surveys of Professionals

Michael P. Clements Robert W. Rich Joseph Tracy

05.10.2022 | WP 22-13

This chapter provides an overview of surveys of professional forecasters, with a focus on the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters and the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters. A distinguishing feature of these surveys is that they collect point and density forecasts and make the data publicly available. We discuss their structure, issues involved in using the data, and the construction of measures such as disagreement and uncertainty at the aggregate and individual levels. Our review also summarizes the findings of studies exploring issues such as the alignment of point forecasts with measures of central tendency from associated density forecasts, the coverage of density forecasts, the rounding of point and density forecasts, comparisons of forecast accuracy across respondents, and heterogeneity in forecast behavior and the persistence of these differential features. We conclude with some observations for future work.

Topics: Econometrics modeling and forecasting

Working Paper

All Forecasters Are Not the Same: Time-Varying Predictive Ability across Forecast Environments

Robert W. Rich Joseph Tracy

02.25.2021 | WP 21-06

This paper examines data from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate whether participants display equal predictive performance. We use panel data models to evaluate point- and density-based forecasts of real GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment. The results document systematic differences in participants’ forecast accuracy that are not time invariant, but instead vary with the difficulty of the forecasting environment. Specifically, we find that some participants display higher relative accuracy in tranquil environments, while others display higher relative accuracy in volatile environments. We also find that predictive performance is positively correlated across target variables and horizons, with density forecasts generating stronger correlation patterns. Taken together, the results support the development of expectations models featuring persistent heterogeneity.

Topics: Econometrics modeling and forecasting

Working Paper

A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area

Robert W. Rich Joseph Tracy

09.28.2018 | WP 18-13

This paper examines point and density forecasts of real GDP growth, inflation and unemployment from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters. We present individual uncertainty measures and introduce individual point- and density-based measures of disagreement. The data indicate substantial heterogeneity and persistence in respondents’ uncertainty and disagreement, with uncertainty associated with prominent respondent effects and disagreement associated with prominent time effects. We also examine the co-movement between uncertainty and disagreement and find an economically insignificant relationship that is robust to changes in the volatility of the forecasting environment. This provides further evidence that disagreement is not a reliable proxy for uncertainty.

Topics: Business cycles

Economic Commentaries

Economic Commentary

The Anchoring of US Inflation Expectations Since 2012

Kristoph Naggert Robert W. Rich Joseph Tracy

07.11.2023 | EC 2023-11

A new measure of inflation expectations’ anchoring finds that medium-run expectations weakened notably during the pandemic before strengthening again recently.

Topics: Inflation

Economic Commentary

Adjusting Median and Trimmed-Mean Inflation Rates for Bias Based on Skewness

Robert W. Rich Randal J. Verbrugge Saeed Zaman

03.24.2022 | EC 2022-05

Median and trimmed-mean inflation rates tend to be useful estimates of trend inflation over long periods, but they can exhibit persistent departures from the underlying trend over shorter horizons. In this Commentary, we document that the extent of this bias is related to the degree of skewness in the distribution of price changes. The shift in the skewness of the cross-sectional price-change distribution during the pandemic means that median PCE and trimmed-mean PCE inflation rates have recently been understating the trend in PCE inflation by about 15 and 35 basis points, respectively.

Topics: Inflation, Econometrics modeling and forecasting

Economic Commentary

Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations

Ina Hajdini Edward S. Knotek II John Leer Mathieu Pedemonte Robert W. Rich Raphael S. Schoenle

03.01.2022 | EC 2022-03

Surveys often measure consumers’ inflation expectations by asking directly about prices in general or overall inflation, concepts that may not be well-defined for some individuals. In this Commentary, we propose a new, indirect way of measuring consumer inflation expectations: Given consumers’ expectations about developments in prices of goods and services during the next 12 months, we ask them how their incomes would have to change to make them equally well-off relative to their current situation such that they could buy the same amount of goods and services as they can today. Using a massive number of survey responses at a high frequency, we show that this measure of indirect consumer inflation expectations has risen sharply since early 2021. Higher inflation experiences correlate with higher indirect consumer inflation expectations across US cities and around the world.

Topics: Inflation, Econometrics modeling and forecasting

Economic Commentary

Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: A Look at the Reaction by Professional Forecasters

Kristoph Naggert Robert W. Rich Joseph Tracy

04.06.2021 | EC 2021-09

This Commentary examines the response of longer-run inflation expectations to the FOMC’s August 2020 announced switch to a flexible average inflation-targeting (FAIT) regime.

Topics: Inflation

Economic Commentary

Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 Conference Summary

Edward S. Knotek II Robert W. Rich Raphael S. Schoenle Philippe Andrade Marco Del Negro Colin Hottman Christian Höynck Matthias Meier Giovanni Ricco Elisa Rubbo Daniel Villar Michael Weber

02.24.2021 | EC 2021-02

To provide insights into the processes that drive inflationary dynamics, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holds an annual conference on the topic of inflation: the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics series. The 2020 installment of the conference was held on May 21-22, 2020. This Commentary summarizes the papers at the conference, which broadly fell into four categories: (1) empirical Phillips curves, (2) networks and Phillips curves, (3) expectations formation, and (4) price-setting behavior and inflation.

Topics: Inflation

Economic Commentary

Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 CEBRA Annual Meeting Session Summary

Edward S. Knotek II Robert W. Rich Raphael S. Schoenle Michael Lamla Emanuel Moench Michael Weber

02.24.2021 | EC 2021-03

The Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research sponsored a session on inflation dynamics at the 2020 CEBRA annual meeting. The presentations focused on inflation expectations and firms’ price-setting behavior. This Economic Commentary summarizes the papers presented during the session.

Topics: Inflation

Economic Commentary

How Aggregation Matters for Measured Wage Growth

Michael Morris Robert W. Rich Joseph Tracy

07.09.2020 | EC 2020-19

Wage growth is often measured by the change in average hourly earnings (AHE), a gauge of overall wages that aggregates information on earnings and hours worked across individuals. A close look at this aggregation method demonstrates that AHE growth reflects disproportionately the profile of high-earning workers who typically display lower and less cyclically sensitive wage growth. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we adopt a different aggregation method and compute wage growth as the average of individuals’ wage growth. The analysis indicates that the CPS measure of average wage growth is significantly higher than AHE growth and that it displays a more meaningful nonlinear relationship with the Congressional Budget Office’s unemployment gap. Last, our findings do not support the claim that there was hidden slack in the labor market during the recent expansion that was restraining wage growth.

Topics: Econometrics modeling and forecasting, Labor economics

Economic Commentary

Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics | 2019 CEBRA Annual Meeting Session Summary

Timo Haber Edward S. Knotek II Jean-Paul L’Huillier Julio Ortiz Damjan Pfajfar Robert W. Rich Raphael S. Schoenle

06.25.2020 | EC 2020-14

The relationship between the Phillips curve and inflation has become weaker over time, producing questions regarding how policymakers might connect inflation to the rest of the economy. Presentations given during the “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics” session of the Central Bank Research Association’s annual meeting focused on the intersection of monetary policy and inflation dynamics to examine the ways in which policy might impact inflation and related expectations and processes. This Economic Commentary summarizes the papers presented during this session.

Topics: Inflation, Econometrics modeling and forecasting, Monetary policy

Economic Commentary

Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2019 Conference Summary

Andres Blanco Mina Kim Edward S. Knotek II Matthius Paustian Robert W. Rich Jane Ryngaert Raphael S. Schoenle Joris Tielens Henning Weber Michael Weber Mirko Wiederholt Tony Zhang

12.19.2019 | EC 2019-22

To provide insights into the processes that drive inflationary dynamics, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holds an annual conference on the topic of inflation: “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics.” This Commentary summarizes the papers presented at the 2019 conference.

Topics: Inflation

Ask the Expert

Ask the Expert

What are inflation expectations, and why do they matter?

Robert W. Rich

05.28.2019

Inflation expectations are what people expect future inflation to be, and they matter because these expectations actually affect people’s behavior.

Topics: Inflation
Speech

Get to Know the Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research - YouTube

Edward S. Knotek II Robert W. Rich

Presentation by Ed Knotek, Senior Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and Robert Rich, Director of the Center for Inflation Research & Senior Economics and Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - Remarks -- National Association for Business Economics
Interview

Wharton Behind the Markets interviews leaders of Center for Inflation Research Edward Knotek, Robert Rich

Edward S. Knotek II Robert W. Rich

12.02.2022

Behind the Markets Podcast: Edward S. Knotek II & Robert Rich.

Interview

Marketplace interview: Clearing up common misconceptions about inflation

Robert W. Rich

04.18.2022

Robert Rich, director of the Center for Inflation Research and senior economic and policy adviser, discussed common inflation misconceptions on Marketplace.

Interview

Dialogue: Gas to Groceries – Why Are We Paying So Much?

Robert W. Rich

02.11.2022

Robert Rich, senior economic and policy advisor and director of the Cleveland Fed's Center for Inflation Research discussed recent inflation trends on WOSU Public Media's "Dialogue: Gas to Groceries – Why Are We Paying So Much?" program.
“Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence” With Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek II, John Leer, Mathieu Pedemonte, and Raphael Schoenle, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2024.

“Surveys of Professionals.” With Michael Peter Clements and Joseph Tracy. Handbook of Economic Expectations, 2022.

“A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area.” With Joseph Tracy. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2021, 53(1): 233–253.

“The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters.” With Joshua Abel, Joseph Song, and Joseph Tracy. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2016, (April–May): 533–550.

“Early Contract Renegotiation: An Analysis of US Labor Contracts from 1970–1995.” With Joseph Tracy. Journal of Labor Economics, 2013, 31(4): 825–842.

“The Relationships between Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertainty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts.” With Joseph Tracy. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2010, 92(1): 200–207.

“Tracking the New Economy: Using Growth Theory to Identify Changes in Trend Productivity.” With James A. Kahn. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007 (September): 1670–1701.

“Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations.” With Joseph Tracy. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004, 86(1): 270–287.

“Using Regional Economic Indexes to Forecast Tax Bases: Evidence from New York.” with Jason Bram, Andrew Haughwout, James Orr, Rae Rosen, and Rebecca Sela. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2005, 87(4): 627–634.

“Structural Estimates of the US Sacrifice Ratio.” With Stephen Cecchetti. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2001, 19(4): 416–427. Discussed in Econometric Analysis, 5th Edition, edited by William H. Greene, 596–602, 2003.

“Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty: A Comment on Bomberger.” With J.S. Butler. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 1998 (August, Part 1): 411–419.

“Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State–Switching Approach.” With Jennie E. Raymond. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 1997 (May): 193–213.

“Inflation and the Asymmetric Effects of Money on Output Fluctuations.” With Wooheon Rhee. Journal of Macroeconomics, 1995 (Fall): 683–702.

“Testing for the Exogeneity of Real Income in Models of the Poverty Process: Evidence from Post–Independence India.” With Clive Bell. Economics Letters, 1994 (December): 295–302.

“Rural Poverty and Aggregate Agricultural Performance in Post–Independence India.” With Clive Bell. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1994 (May): 111–133.

“Some Tests for Speculative Exchange Rate Bubbles Based on Unit Root Tests.” With Dimitris Kirikos. Spoudai, 1994 (January–June): 14–30.

“Testing for Measurement Errors in Expectations from Survey Data: An Instrumental Variables Approach.” With Jennie E. Raymond and J.S. Butler. Economics Letters, 1993, 43(1): 5–10.

“The Relationship between Forecast Dispersion and Forecast Uncertainty: Evidence from a Survey Data–ARCH Model.” With Jennie E. Raymond and J.S. Butler. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1992 (April–June): 131–148.

“Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models.” With Jennie E. Raymond and J.S. Butler. Economics Letters, 1991 (February): 179–185.

“Another Look at the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations Data.” Applied Economics, 1990 (April): 477–485. Reviewed in “Research on Forecasting” in International Journal of Forecasting, 1990 (October): 445–446.

“Testing the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts from Survey Data: Another Look at the SRC Expected Price Change Data.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1989 (November): 682–686.
Conference Proceedings

“Distinguishing Trends from Cycles in Productivity.” With James A. Kahn. In Monetary Policy in a Changing Environment, Bank for International Settlements, Conference Papers, 2003, 19: 443–461.

“A Look at the US Inflation Puzzle.” With Cara S. Lown. In Monetary Policy and the Inflation Process, Bank for International Settlements, Conference Papers, 1997, 4 (July): 193–219.

Other Federal Reserve Publications

“The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG).” With Marlene Amstad and Simon Potter. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, December 2017, 1–32.

“The Parts Are More Than the Whole: Separating Goods and Services to Predict Inflation.” With Richard Peach and M. Henry Linder. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2013, 19(7).

“How Does Slack Influence Inflation?”” With Richard Peach and Anna Cororaton. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2011, 17(3).

“Improving Survey Measurement of Household Inflation Expectations.” With Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Wilbert van Der Klaauw, Simon Potter, and Giorgio Topa. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, August/September 2010.

“Is the Worst Over? Economic Indexes and the Course of the Recession in New York and New Jersey.” With Jason Bram, James Orr, Rae Rosen, and Joseph Song. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, September 2009.

“A Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation.” With Charles Steindel. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, December 2007, 19–38.

“Tracking Productivity in Real Time.” With James A. Kahn. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, November 2006.

“The Historical and Recent Behavior of Goods and Services Inflation.” With Alexis Antoniades and Richard Peach. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, December 2004, 19–31.

“Is There an Inflation Puzzle?” With Cara S. Lown. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, December 1997, 51–69.

“Leading Economic Indexes for New York State and New Jersey.” With James Orr and Rae Rosen. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, March 2001, 73–94.

“Understanding the Recent Behavior of US Inflation.” With Donald Rissmiller. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economic and Finance, July 2000.

“Two New Indexes Offer a Broad View of Economic Activity in the New York–New Jersey Region.” With James Orr and Rae Rosen. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance: Second District Highlights, October 1999.

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