Grant Rosenberger

Rising interest rates have prompted concerns about losses on bank assets, especially following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023. In this working paper, we examine whether US credit unions could be subject to similar losses as banks and analyze how their regulatory capital would be affected. We estimate that after realizing losses from assets that have decreased in value and not yet been sold the overall net worth of the credit union industry would have fallen by 40 percent in 2023:Q1. Unrealized losses were most severe at the largest credit unions. Nonetheless, the bulk of deposits at credit unions were insured, suggesting limited risk of an SVB-style run. In addition, credit union deposit rates are relatively insensitive to market interest rates, providing credit unions with a hedge against a rising rate environment. Overall, credit unions’ balance sheet positions seemed to be more resilient to unrealized interest rate risk than banks’.

Researchers describe reciprocal deposits, the recent change in their legal treatment, and why their use grew during the banking turmoil of 2023.

Will American Rescue Plan allocations be modest, or will they create a once-in-a-generation opportunity?