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Economic Commentary

Is Household Debt Inhibiting the Recovery?

Forecasting short-run economic activity is a tenuous business. Though all economic contractions and expansions have certain well-defined characteristics, history never completely replicates itself. Thus, the particulars of past economic downturns are distinct, and the task of forecasters is something of an art — that of identifying the relevant caveat in the current economic outlook.

The views authors express in Economic Commentary are theirs and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The series editor is Tasia Hane. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. This paper and its data are subject to revision; please visit for updates.

Suggested Citation

Altig, David, Susan M. Bryne, and Katherine Samolyk. 1992. “Is Household Debt Inhibiting the Recovery?” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary 2/1/1992.