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  • The Unemployment Cost of COVID-19: How High and How Long?

    Ayşegül Şahin Murat Tasci Jin Yan

    We use flows into and out of unemployment to estimate the unemployment rate over the next year. This approach produces less stark projections for the unemployment rate over the course of the next year than some of the more alarming projections that have been reported. Using our approach and assuming that the severest social-distancing measures will be lifted in June, we estimate that the unemployment rate will peak in May at about 16 percent but gradually decline thereafter and end the year at 7.5 percent. Read More

  • Help for Those Facing Eviction Increases to Meet the Challenge of COVID-19

    Bonnie Blankenship

    With businesses closed and orders to shelter in place, many tenants—especially those with low- to moderate-incomes—are finding themselves unemployed, unable to pay their rents, and subject to eviction. There are resources to help. Read More

  • Consumers and COVID-19: A Real-Time Survey

    Edward S. Knotek II Raphael Schoenle Alexander Dietrich Keith Kuester Gernot Müller Kristian Ove R. Myrseth Michael Weber

    We summarize the results from an ongoing survey that asks consumers questions related to the recent coronavirus outbreak, including their expectations for how the economy is likely to be affected by the outbreak and how their own behavior has changed in response to it. The survey began in early March, providing a window into how consumers’ responses have evolved in real time since the early days of the acknowledged spread of COVID-19 in the United States. In updating and charting the survey’s findings on the Cleveland Fed’s website going forward, we seek to inform policymakers and researchers about consumers’ beliefs during a time of high uncertainty and unprecedented policy responses. Read More

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