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  • Do Longer Expansions Lead to More Severe Recessions?

    Murat Tasci Nicholas Zevanove

    We are now in one of the longest expansions on record. The recession that preceded that expansion was one of the worst in history. Are those two facts related? Some economists suggest they are, while others suggest it’s the other way around: Longer expansions lead to more severe recessions. We assess the evidence for these two hypotheses. We find clear evidence for the former and little for the latter. Deeper recessions are often followed by stronger recoveries, while longer and stronger expansions are not followed by deeper recessions. Read More

  • Asset Commonality in US Banks and Financial Stability

    Jan-Peter Siedlarek Nicholas Fritsch

    One potential threat to a stable financial system is the phenomenon of contagion, where a risk that is ordinarily small becomes a problem because of the way it spreads to other institutions. Researchers have investigated multiple channels through which contagion might occur. We look at two--banks borrowing from each other and banks holding similar types of assets--and argue that the latter is a potential source of systemic risk. We review recent data on asset concentrations and capitalization levels of the largest US banks and conclude that the overall risk from this particular contagion channel is at present likely limited. Read More

  • Rail~Volution Rides into Pittsburgh

    Drew Pack

    The 2018 Rail~Volution conference brought together 1,000 transportation stakeholders to discuss transportation challenges and solutions. Increasing access and integrating technology were two areas of focus this year. Read More

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