Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth
- Background: The yield curve—which measures the spread between the yields on short- and long-term maturity bonds—is often used to predict recessions.
- Description: We use past values of the slope of the yield curve and GDP growth to provide predictions of future GDP growth and the probability that the economy will fall into a recession over the next year.
Percent change from previous month
| May | April | March | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-month Treasury bill rate (percent) | 1.05 | 0.82 | 0.52 |
| 10-year Treasury bond rate (percent) | 2.87 | 2.89 | 2.37 |
| Yield curve slope (basis points) | 182 | 207 | 185 |
| Prediction for GDP growth (percent) | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.5 |
| Probability of recession in 1 year (percent) | 2.6 | 2.7 | 4.6 |
- Yield-Curve-Predicted GDP Growth
- Probability of Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve
-
Chart will load here
-
Chart will load here