Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth
- Background: The yield curve—which measures the spread between the yields on short- and long-term maturity bonds—is often used to predict recessions.
- Description: We use past values of the slope of the yield curve and GDP growth to provide predictions of future GDP growth and the probability that the economy will fall into a recession over the next year.
Percent change from previous month
| September | August | July | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-month Treasury bill rate (percent) | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| 10-year Treasury bond rate (percent) | 1.37 | 1.31 | 1.26 |
| Yield curve slope (basis points) | 134 | 126 | 121 |
| Prediction for GDP growth (percent) | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Probability of recession in 1 year (percent) | 7.7 | 8.4 | 7.6 |
- Yield-Curve-Predicted GDP Growth
- Probability of Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve
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