Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth
- Background: The yield curve—which measures the spread between the yields on short- and long-term maturity bonds—is often used to predict recessions.
- Description: We use past values of the slope of the yield curve and GDP growth to provide predictions of future GDP growth and the probability that the economy will fall into a recession over the next year.
| September | August | July | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-month Treasury bill rate (percent) | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| 10-year Treasury bond rate (percent) | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| Yield curve slope (basis points) | 57 | 57 | 48 |
| Prediction for GDP growth (percent) | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| Probability of recession in 1 year (percent) | 20.0 | 20.8 | 21.1 |
- Yield-Curve-Predicted GDP Growth
- Probability of Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve
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