Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth
- Background: The yield curve—which measures the spread between the yields on short- and long-term maturity bonds—is often used to predict recessions.
- Description: We use past values of the slope of the yield curve and GDP growth to provide predictions of future GDP growth and the probability that the economy will fall into a recession over the next year.
| September | August | July | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-month Treasury bill rate (percent) | 1.95 | 1.96 | 2.11 |
| 10-year Treasury bond rate (percent) | 1.80 | 1.58 | 2.07 |
| Yield curve slope (basis points) | -15 | -38 | -4 |
| Prediction for GDP growth (percent) | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Probability of recession in 1 year (percent) | 37.9 | 44.1 | 35.4 |
- Yield-Curve-Predicted GDP Growth
- Probability of Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve
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