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Inflation Expectations


  • In April 2020, an update for one of the data series used to generate inflation expectations was not available, so we used the last available (March 27)┬ádata point. The April 2020 observation in the May update now incorporates the newly available data.
  • Description: We report estimates of the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate.
  • How we get our estimates: Our estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations.
  • Download our spreadsheet to see all the inflation expectations model’s outputs.
  • Ten-Year Expected Inflation and Real and Inflation Risk Premia
  • Ten-Year TIPS Yields versus Real Yields
  • Expected Inflation Term Structure
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