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Inflation Expectations

  • Description: We report estimates of the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate.
  • How we get our estimates: Our estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations.
  • Download our spreadsheet to see all the inflation expectations model’s outputs.
Calculations for the June 2019 through November 2019 releases of the inflation expectations series inadvertently relied on incorrect values of survey-based measures of inflation expectations, while previous months were unaffected. We provide both the as-reported and corrected values for inflation expectations in separate Excel files within the zipped archive file for each release from June 2019 through November 2019. Because the corrected file is the file that should have been originally published, we advise you to use the corrected file.
  • Ten-Year Expected Inflation and Real and Inflation Risk Premia
  • Ten-Year TIPS Yields versus Real Yields
  • Expected Inflation Term Structure
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