Skip to:
  1. Main navigation
  2. Main content
  3. Footer
Indicators & Data

Inflation Expectations

Latest Numbers

10-year expected inflation: 2.33%

Update Schedule

Last updated
July 15, 2025

Next update
August 12, 2025

Downloads

Download our spreadsheet to see all the inflation expectations model’s outputs going back to 1982.

Further Info

About inflation expectations

For further information please contact CLEV Public Information.

Subscribe to receive a notification when the next update is posted.

  • Description: We report estimates of the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate.
  • How we get our estimates: Our estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations.
Data Downloads
Download the model outputs Inflation expectations

Background

How to Interpret the Latest Data and Charts

The 10-Year Expected Inflation Estimate

The 10-year expected inflation estimate that we report is the rate that inflation is expected to average over the next 10 years.

Chart 1: Ten-Year Expected Inflation and Real and Inflation Risk Premia

This chart shows the model’s estimates of the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate. The inflation risk premium is a measure of the premium investors require for the possibility that inflation may rise or fall more than they expect over the period in which they hold a bond. Similarly, the real risk premium is a measure of the compensation investors require for holding real (inflation-protected) bonds over some period, given the fact that future short-term rates might be different from what they expect. Both the real risk premium and the inflation risk premium can be interpreted as investors’ assessment of risk. In the case of the real risk premium, it is an assessment of the risk of unexpected changes in the real interest rate, and in the case of the inflation risk premium, it is an assessment of the risk of unexpected changes in inflation.

Chart 2: Ten-Year TIPS Yields versus Real Yields

This chart compares the model’s estimate of 10-year real interest rates against TIPS yields. The comparison can be interpreted as illustrating the importance of factors not in the model (taxes, liquidity, the embedded option) for the TIPS market. As TIPS are not used in the model, it also serves as a simple out-of-sample test for the model.

Chart 3: Expected Inflation Term Structure

This chart shows the model’s estimates for expected inflation at horizons of 1 to 30 years at three points in time: the current month, the previous month, and the previous year.

Historical Data

  • Excel: This spreadsheet contains inflation expectations model’s output from 1982 to the present. Output includes expected inflation for horizons from 1 year to 30 years, the real risk premium, the inflation risk premium, and the real interest rate.
  • Revisions: See this PDF for a list and description of revisions and corrections.

FAQs

  • The inflation expectations model is run on the day of the month that the CPI is released. The model results are released before 4 pm on that day.

  • The numbers we report are annualized, so 1.5 percent for the 10-year inflation expectation means that inflation is expected to average 1.5 percent per year over the next 10 years.

  • Column A, or the first vertical row, is the date that the model is run, so, for example, the date 12/1/2015 is the model output for the month of December 2015. The Cleveland Fed’s inflation model is based on data from different points in the month, so we call the output a monthly figure of inflation expectations.

  • The inflation expectation model uses:

    • Blue Chip forecast of CPI
    • Inflation swap data
    • CPI numbers for the current month
    • CPI data from vintage FRED
    • 1-month to 6-month treasury bill yield at constant maturity
    • 1-year to 15-year US treasury yield: continuously compounded zero-coupon
    • Survey of Professional Forecasters median year-over-year CPI inflation rate for the next 10 years
Suggested Citation

“Inflation Expectations.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-infexp . Accessed on July 29, 2025.

Receive indicator alerts

Subscribe to receive email alerts when these six indicators and data are updated: Median CPI, Median PCE, Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations (SoFIE), Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE), Inflation Expectations, Simple Monetary Policy Rules.

Related Research

Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Center for Inflation Research

The Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research is the hub for “all things inflation,” providing a combination of research, analyses and data, background and commentary, and an annual conference series dedicated to inflation.

Learn more