College Degrees and the Labor Market: Long-Run Trends and Recent Challenges for Young Graduates

Friday, March 20, 2026
12:00–1:00 pm EDT

About the event

For decades, a college degree was a reliable ticket to faster job placement, lower unemployment, and rising wages. But something fundamental shifted around the year 2000, and the consequences are only now becoming fully visible.

Join us for a discussion of new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland that reveals a major transformation in the American labor market. Using nearly 50 years of data, researchers Alexander Cline and Barış Kaymak examine how the economic forces in the labor market that once strongly favored college-educated workers have shifted over the past several decades—and how young college graduates have lost their long-standing advantage in finding jobs faster.

What you'll discover:

• Why the unemployment gap between young high school and college graduates has hit its lowest level since the late 1970s—and why this isn't just a postpandemic phenomenon
• How growth in labor demand switched from “college-biased” to “education-neutral” after the year 2000, ending decades of college-biased growth
• What advantages college graduates retain despite their struggles with initial job placement and why the story is more nuanced than “college degrees don't matter anymore”

This research documents significant shifts in how education relates to labor market outcomes over the past several decades. The findings raise important questions about the changing nature of work, education, and economic opportunity.

The speaker will take your questions following the presentation.

Speaker

• Barış Kaymak, Economic and Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland