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Thinking Outside the Box: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?


Despite the stability of the median 10-year inflation expectations in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) near 2 percent, we show that not a single SPF respondent’s expectations have been anchored at the target since the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) enactment of an inflation target in January 2012, or even since 2015. However, we find significant evidence for “delayed anchoring,” or a move toward being anchored, particularly after the federal funds rate lifted off in December 2015.

Keywords: inflation expectations, persistent disagreement, credibility, delayed anchoring.
JEL Codes: E37, E31, E7, E52.


Suggested citation: Binder, Carola, Wesley Janson, and Randal Verbrugge. 2019. “Thinking Outside the Box: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper no. 19-15. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-201915.

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