Economic Recovery and the Fourth District

The pattern and composition of the national economic recovery are among the most important elements shaping local economic recoveries. The national economy shifted into recovery in the first quarter of 1983, with real gross national product (GNP) growing at a 2.6 percent annual rate. At the same time, total nonagricultural employment in the Fourth District has steadily risen, and Fourth District unemployment rates, while still substantially higher than national unemployment rates, have dropped. Although these short-run developments are encouraging, the recovery in the Fourth District is restricted to just a few industries, primarily automotives, housing, and retail trade. The concentration of the District’s resources in heavy manufacturing, such as automobiles, steel, and machine tools, partly explains the cyclical vulnerability of the local economies and why employment gains have been spotty in the early stages of recovery.