Are Young College Graduates Losing Their Edge in the Job Market? with Cleveland Fed Research Analyst Alex Cline

Key takeaways

• Historically, college graduates secure jobs at a faster rate than high school graduates. This advantage has eroded over time.
• Both groups, college and high school graduates, are finding jobs at roughly similar rates.
• The timing of these trends suggests that they are not primarily driven by AI automation or post-pandemic labor market conditions.

Video summary

Cleveland Fed research analyst, Alex Cline, shares findings from his latest Economic Commentary: “Demand for College Labor in the 21st Century” co-written with Cleveland Fed economist Barış Kaymak.

Full transcript

Our research reveals a significant shift in the employment dynamics for young college graduates. Historically, college graduates secure jobs at a faster rate than high school graduates. However, this advantage has eroded over time with both groups now finding employment at roughly similar rates. This trend reflects a steady decline in job finding rates for young college graduates since 2000. As a result, the unemployment gap between young high school and college graduates has narrowed to all-time lows. The timing of these trends suggests that they're not primarily driven by recent factors like AI automation or postpandemic labor market conditions. Despite these shifts, college education still offers tangible benefits. Young college graduates continue to enjoy greater job security with lower separation rates, and command higher wages compared to their high school counterparts. Visit our website for the full Economic Commentary.