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Cleveland Fed survey: CEO inflation expectations decreased in 2026:Q3
Inflation expectations among U.S. business leaders decreased in the third quarter of 2026, according to the Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE), which is published by the Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research.
CEOs and other top executives reported in July (2026:Q3) that they expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to increase by 3.3 percent over the next 12 months, down from their previous forecast of 3.7 percent in April (2026:Q2).
The quarterly survey gathers responses from a large representative panel of firms in the manufacturing and services sectors. The Cleveland Fed reports these survey data because business leaders’ inflation expectations can influence the prices their firms charge customers, and thereby affect the path of inflation.
In addition, SoFIE asks business leaders a rotating list of questions focused on their beliefs about inflation, the economy and their expectations related to their own firms.
To see that data and comparisons over time, visit the SoFIE webpage: Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations
More indicators from the Center for Inflation Research:
- Inflation Nowcasting: daily estimates of the current period’s rate of inflation
- Median CPI and Median PCE: measures that can provide a better signal of the underlying inflation trend
- Inflation Expectations: estimates of expected inflation based on financial data and surveys
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that along with the Board of Governors in Washington DC comprise the Federal Reserve System. Part of the US central bank, the Cleveland Fed participates in the formulation of our nation’s monetary policy, supervises banking organizations, provides payment and other services to financial institutions and to the US Treasury, and performs many activities that support Federal Reserve operations System-wide. In addition, the Bank supports the well-being of communities across the Fourth Federal Reserve District through a wide array of research, outreach, and educational activities.
The Cleveland Fed, with branches in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, serves an area that comprises Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.
Media contact
Chuck Soder, chuck.soder@clev.frb.org, 216.672.2798
Related resources
About Us
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (commonly known as the Cleveland Fed) is part of the Federal Reserve System, the central bank of the United States.
Center for Inflation Research
The Center for Inflation Research helps policymakers, researchers, industry professionals, and the informed public better understand inflation. Explore commentary, research, and analysis on inflationary trends, and find out about upcoming inflation-related events.
Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations
The Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) is a large quarterly representative panel of firms in the manufacturing and services sectors that was created to measure inflation expectations of chief executive officers (CEOs) in the United States. Released quarterly.