Rising Skill Supply, Technological Changes, and Innovation: A Quantitative Exploration of China

Can the expansion of higher education lead to firm productivity growth? In this paper, we examine how China's college expansion program contributes to the rapid growth of firms' R&D expenditure and productivity. In our model, heterogeneous firms make endogenous R&D decisions, requiring them to allocate skilled workers between production and R&D. We structurally estimate the model using firm-level data on the level and distribution of R&D, as well as macro-level data on skill prices and sectoral allocation. Quantitative analysis reveals that between 2004 and 2018, the combination of the R&D-sector-biased technology shock, the skill-biased technology shock, and the skilled-labor supply shock leads to a 12 percent increase in total factor productivity (TFP), of which one-fifth is explained by the rising supply of skilled labor. Counterfactual analysis shows that a further increase in the share of skilled labor has the potential to increase TFP by an additional 2 percent, but the marginal effect diminishes due to the rising wages of unskilled labor.