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Working Paper

Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices Revisited: A Bayesian VAR-GMM Approach

Several Phillips curves based on sticky information and sticky prices are estimated and compared using Bayesian VAR-GMM. This method derives expectations in each Phillips curve from a VAR and estimates the Phillips curve parameters and the VAR coefficients simultaneously. Quasi-marginal likelihood-based model comparison selects a dual stickiness Phillips curve in which, each period, some prices remain unchanged, consistent with micro evidence. Moreover, sticky information is a more plausible source of inflation inertia in the Phillips curve than other sources proposed in previous studies. Sticky information, sticky prices, and unchanged prices in each period are all needed to better describe inflation dynamics.

Suggested Citation

Kurozumi, Takushi, Ryohei Oishi, and Willem Van Zandweghe. 2022. “Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices Revisited: A Bayesian VAR-GMM Approach.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper No. 22-34.