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Working Paper

Estimating the Trend Unemployment Rate in the Fourth Federal Reserve District

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We estimate trend unemployment rates for Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia, states that span parts of the Fourth District of the Federal Reserve System. Our estimated unemployment rate trend for the District as a whole stood at 5.7 percent in 2020:Q1 compared to a 4.7 percent observed unemployment rate within the District, implying a tight labor market by historical standards.
Topics
Econometrics modeling and forecasting
Labor economics
07.01.2020ISSN 2573-7953 WP 20-19DOI 10.26509/frbc-wp-202019
Keywords unemployment rate, trend, federal reserve district
JEL Classification Codes E32, E24, D21, J6, R1

Working Papers of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment on research in progress. They may not have been subject to the formal editorial review accorded official Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland publications. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Federal Reserve System.

Suggested Citation

Fallick, Bruce, and Murat Tasci. 2020. “Estimating the Trend Unemployment Rate in the Fourth Federal Reserve District.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper No. 20-19. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202019