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Working Paper
04.21.2022 |
WP 19-30R
Using a unique data set and a novel identification strategy, we estimate the effect of minimum wage increases on job vacancy postings. Utilizing occupation-specific county level vacancy data from the Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online for 2005-2018, we find that state-level minimum wage increases lead to substantial declines in existing and new vacancy postings in occupations with a larger share of workers who earn close to the prevailing minimum wage. We estimate that a 10 percent increase in the state level effective minimum wage reduces vacancies by 2.4 percent in the same quarter, and the cumulative effect is as large as 4.5 percent a year later. The negative effect on vacancies is more pronounced for occupations where workers typically have lower educational attainment (high school or less) and in counties with higher poverty rates. We argue that our focus on vacancies versus on employment has a distinct advantage of highlighting a mechanism through which minimum wage hikes affect labor demand. Our finding of a negative effect on vacancies is not inconsistent with the wide range of findings in the literature about the effect of minimum wage changes on employment, which is driven by changes in both hiring and separation margins.
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Working Paper
11.08.2021 |
WP 21-25
This paper presents a flow-based methodology for real-time unemployment rate projections and shows that this approach performed considerably better at the onset of the COVID-19 recession in spring 2020 in predicting the peak unemployment rate as well as its rapid decline over the year. It presents an alternative scenario analysis for 2021 based on this methodology and argues that the unemployment rate is likely to end slightly below 5 percent by the end of 2021. The predictive power of the methodology comes from its combined use of real-time data with the flow approach.
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Working Paper
07.01.2020 |
WP 20-19
We estimate trend unemployment rates for Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia, states that span parts of the Fourth District of the Federal Reserve System. Our estimated unemployment rate trend for the District as a whole stood at 5.7 percent in 2020:Q1 compared to a 4.7 percent observed unemployment rate within the District, implying a tight labor market by historical standards.
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Working Paper
12.23.2019 |
WP 19-30
We estimate the impact of minimum-wage increases on the quantity of labor demanded as measured by firms’ vacancy postings. We use propriety, county-level vacancy data from the Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online database. Our identification relies on the disproportionate effects of minimum-wage hikes on different occupations, as the wage distribution around the binding minimum wage differs by occupation. We find that minimum-wage increases during the 2005-2018 period have led to substantial declines in vacancy postings in at-risk occupations, occupations with a larger share of employment around the prevailing minimum wage. Our estimate implies that a 10 percent increase in the binding minimum- wage level reduces vacancies by 2.4 percent in this group. The negative effect is concentrated not exclusively in the routine jobs, but more in the manual occupations.
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Working Paper
04.19.2019 |
WP 17-06R
We present a model with search frictions and heterogeneous agents that allows us to decompose the overall increase in US wage inequality in the last 30 years into its within- and between-firm and skill components. We calibrate the model to evaluate how much of the overall rise in wage inequality and its components is explained by different channels. Output distribution per firm-skill pair more than accounts for the observed increase over this period. Parametric identification implies that the worker-specific component is responsible for 85 percent of this, compared to 15 percent that is attributable to firm-level productivity shifts.
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Working Paper
02.25.2019 |
WP 19-05
Over the last decade, 11 states have restricted employers’ access to the credit reports of job applicants. We document a significant decline in county-level vacancies after these laws were enacted: Job postings fall by 5.5 percent in affected occupations relative to exempt occupations in the same county and the same occupation nationwide. Cross-sectional heterogeneity in the estimated effects suggests that employers use credit reports as signals: Vacancies fall more in counties with a large share of subprime residents, while they fall less in occupations with other commonly available signals.
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Working Paper
01.10.2018 |
WP 16-25R2
Since the Great Recession, 11 states have restricted employers' access to the credit reports of job applicants. We document that county-level vacancies decline between 9.5 percent and 12.4 percent after states enact these laws. Vacancies decline significantly in affected occupations but remain constant in those that are exempt, and the decline is larger in counties with many subprime residents. Furthermore, subprime borrowers fall behind on more debt payments and reduce credit inquiries postban. The evidence suggests that, counter to their intent, employer credit check bans disrupt labor and credit markets, especially for subprime workers.
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Working Paper
10.20.2017 |
WP 16-25R
We document that county-level job vacancies decline between 9.5 and 12.4 percent after states enact laws that restrict employers' access to the credit reports of job applicants. The evidence suggests that, counter to their intent, employer credit-check bans disrupt labor and credit markets, especially for workers who are subprime borrowers.
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Working Paper
05.05.2017 |
WP 17-06
We extend an on-the-job search framework in order to allow firms to hire workers with different skills and skills to interact with firms' total factor productivity (TFP). Our model implies that more productive firms are larger, pay higher wages, and hire more workers at all skill levels and proportionately more at higher skill types, matching key stylized facts.
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Working Paper
11.18.2015 |
WP 12-36R2
We show the inability of a standardly calibrated labor search-and-matching model to account for observed levels of labor market volatility.
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Working Paper
02.12.2015 |
WP 15-02
This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that leverage unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate.
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Working Paper
10.17.2014 |
WP 14-22
This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses them to estimate the unemployment rate trend, that is, the unemployment rate to which the economy converges in the long run.
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Working Paper
11.01.2013 |
WP 12-36R
We show the inability of a standardly calibrated labor search-and-matching model to account for observed levels of labor market volatility.
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Working Paper
12.25.2012 |
WP 12-36
We show the inability of a standardly calibrated labor search-and-matching model to account for observed levels of labor market volatility.
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Working Paper
11.08.2012 |
WP 12-24
This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in the modern theory of unemployment.
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Working Paper
08.01.2012 |
WP 11-11R
We show that search frictions embedded in an RBC model primarily manifest themselves at the extensive margin.
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Working Paper
04.18.2012 |
WP 12-11
We construct a multiple shock, discrete time version of the Mortensen-Pissarides labor market search model to investigate the basic model’s well-known tendency to underpredict the volatility of key labor market variables.
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Working Paper
04.28.2011 |
WP 11-11
We show that search frictions embedded in an RBC model primarily manifest themselves at the extensive margin.
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Working Paper
01.01.2011 |
WP 10-17R
In this paper, we present a simple, reduced-form model of comovements in real activity and worker flows (job finding and separation).
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Working Paper
10.13.2010 |
WP 10-17
In this paper, we present a simple, reduced-form model of comovements in real activity and worker flows (job finding and separation).
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Working Paper
12.01.2008 |
WP 08-13
We construct a multiple-shock version of the Mortensen-Pissarides labor market search model to investigate the basic model’s well-known tendency to underpredict the volatility of key labor market variables.
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Working Paper
02.01.2008 |
WP 08-01
We review the positive and normative effects of a minimum wage in various versions of a search-theoretic model of the labor market.
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Working Paper
12.01.2007 |
WP 07-25
This paper studies amplification of productivity shocks in labor markets through on-the-job-search.
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Working Paper
12.01.2007 |
WP 07-20
This paper constructs a multiple-shock version of the Mortensen-Pissarides labor market search model to investigate the basic model’s well-known tendency to under predict the volatility of key labor market variables.