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Economic Commentary

1991 Outlook: Mild Recession, Mild Recovery

The U.S. economy has been buffeted in the past few months by uncertainties surrounding the Persian Gulf War and its effects on crude oil supplies and by a strained financial sector domestically. Though these factors can make shortterm economic forecasts highly unpredictable, members of the Fourth District Economists’ Roundtable, who met January 18 at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, project that the current contraction will be brief and that economic growth will resume by mid-year.

The views authors express in Economic Commentary are theirs and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The series editor is Tasia Hane. This paper and its data are subject to revision; please visit for updates.

Suggested Citation

Erceg, John. 1991. “1991 Outlook: Mild Recession, Mild Recovery.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary 2/1/1991.

This work by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International