1991 Outlook: Mild Recession, Mild Recovery

The U.S. economy has been buffeted in the past few months by uncertainties surrounding the Persian Gulf War and its effects on crude oil supplies and by a strained financial sector domestically. Though these factors can make shortterm economic forecasts highly unpredictable, members of the Fourth District Economists’ Roundtable, who met January 18 at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, project that the current contraction will be brief and that economic growth will resume by mid-year.