The Median CPI ranks the components of inflation and picks the one in the middle. Its construction makes it less sensitive to short-lived price fluctuations, thereby better capturing the trend in prices. Updated monthly.
Median PCE inflation ranks changes in the PCE price index components from lowest to highest and picks the middle one. Its construction makes it less sensitive to short-lived price fluctuations, thereby better capturing the trend in prices. Updated monthly.
We combine financial data and survey-based measures to calculate expected inflation rates. Our model reports average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Released monthly.
We provide forecasts of CPI and PCE inflation before the official data are released. These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.
We gauge perceptions of systemic risk in the US financial services industry based on financial market data. Released weekly.
We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Released monthly.
We present federal funds rates coming from a range of simple monetary policy rules based on multiple economic forecasts. Use our tool to create your own rule. Updated quarterly.
These interactive charts allow you to view the assets on the Fed’s balance sheet and to see how their composition has changed following the financial crisis in 2008. Updated weekly.
Download datasets available from the Cleveland Fed.