Research and Analysis

Our research informs the public and policymakers by examining economic issues of importance to those in our local communities, across the nation, and around the world.
- Research teams
- Publications
  
  We publish research and analyses to keep audiences informed of economic trends in our region and nationwide. View latest releases or explore our archive.
- Events
- Inflation questions?
  Visit our Center for Inflation Research for all things inflation—from general information on how inflation works and why it matters to the latest data and analysis on current inflationary trends.

Region and Community

We represent and gather information from the Fourth Federal Reserve District, spanning Ohio and parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky. These resources are useful for our region, the communities we serve, and communities across the United States.
- Our region
  
  Learn about our work to advance understanding of economic trends affecting the Fourth District.
- Our communities
- Events
  
  Hear from local leaders and community development experts about economic problems their communities face and the solutions they are putting forth.
- By topic
  
  Looking for the Fed’s work on a particular subject? Narrow your search to the areas that interest you.
- Register to attend!
  Join us in Cleveland or virtually on June 26–27, 2025, for our 17th Policy Summit, as we explore research and innovative strategies for "Building Strong and Sustainable Communities."
  
  Interested in other events? Check out our Fed Talk series.

Education

Learn economic basics, dive into inflation, and get educational resources and games for yourself or to share with others.
- Ways to learn
  
  Explore articles, explainers, videos and more to learn about our economy and the Fed.
- Financial Literacy and Career Readiness
  
  Browse the Cleveland Fed’s suite of programs and resources for informative ways to learn about personal finance or career readiness.
- Visits and tours
  
  Visit us to learn more about our history and our ongoing work to promote financial literacy throughout our region.
  - Visit Us
- Financial Literacy Curriculum
  Learn more about resources supporting required high school, middle school, and elementary school financial literacy courses.

Banking and Payments

We supervise financial institutions, support American consumers’ financial security, and maintain the financial stability and payment systems for the US Treasury.
- Banking research and tools
  
  The Cleveland Fed provides a range of tools for tracking trends in the lending environment.
- For consumers
  
  Learn about the resources we offer to help people in the community navigate the financial system.
- For financial institutions
  
  Understand the various requirements for Fed-chartered financial institutions and discover the range of services available to them—from cash services and reserve balance data to the discount window.
- Supporting the financial system
  
  Find out how the Cleveland Fed supervises member banks to ensure financial-system stability and support the US Treasury.

About Us

We serve the American people as part of the US central bank. We support the US economy and our region by studying economic conditions and issues that impact our communities, serving financial institutions, and providing economic education and resources for all.
- Our leadership
  
  Meet the individuals leading our mission, including the president and executive leadership team, advisory council members, and the boards of directors of each Cleveland Fed branch.
- Who we are and what we do
  
  The Fed does more than inform monetary policy. Learn about the mission, structure, and role of our organization, both regionally and nationally.
- Sharing our work
  
  Community outreach, education, and research are central to the Fed’s mission. Connect with us as we share our work, latest publications, and welcome you to visit our learning center.

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Indicators and Data

Median CPI

The median CPI is a measure of inflation computed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. It ranks the components of CPI inflation and picks the one in the middle. Its construction makes it less sensitive to short-lived price fluctuations, thereby better capturing the trend in prices. Released monthly.

Median PCE Inflation

Median PCE inflation is a measure of inflation computed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. It ranks the components of PCE inflation and picks the one in the middle. Its construction makes it less sensitive to short-lived price fluctuations, thereby better capturing the trend in prices. Released monthly.

Inflation Expectations

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations

The Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) is a large quarterly representative panel of firms in the manufacturing and services sectors that was created to measure inflation expectations of chief executive officers (CEOs) in the United States. Released quarterly.

Inflation Nowcasting

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.

Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

Simple Monetary Policy Rules

We present federal funds rates coming from a range of simple monetary policy rules based on multiple economic forecasts. Use our tool to create your own rule. Released quarterly.

Systemic Risk Indicator

We gauge perceptions of systemic risk in the US financial services industry based on financial market data. Estimates are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released weekly.

Credit Easing

These interactive charts allow you to view the assets on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and to see how their composition has changed following the financial crisis in 2008. Released weekly.

Consumers and COVID-19

We provide survey results from asking consumers questions related to the COVID-19 outbreak. Released weekly until May 4, 2022.

Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE)

SORCE indexes are based on our survey of business and community leaders and provide a timely summary of economic activity in our region, which includes all of Ohio and parts of Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Released twice each quarter.

Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Center for Inflation Research

The Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research is the hub for “all things inflation,” providing a combination of research, analyses and data, background and commentary, and an annual conference series dedicated to inflation.

Additional Research Resources

Cleveland Fed economists occasionally update data and results associated with their research. These experimental data series and model outputs are separate from the Cleveland Fed’s official indicators and data releases.