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The Macroeconomic Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of seven key TCJA provisions, including the tax cuts for individuals and businesses, the bonus depreciation of equipment, the amortization of R&D expenses, and the limits on interest deductibility. I use a dynamic general equilibrium model with interest deductibility and accelerated depreciation. I find that, initially, the tax reform had a small positive impact on output and investment. In the medium term, however, the effect on output will diminish, and the effect on investment will turn negative. The tax reform will depress investment in R&D. Government debt will surge.

Keywords: Tax reform, tax multiplier, interest deductibility, accelerated depreciation, financial frictions.
JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E62, H24, H25, H30.

Suggested citation: Occhino, Filippo. 2019. “The Macroeconomic Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper no. 19-28.

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