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A Medium Scale Forecasting Model for Monetary Policy

This paper presents a 16-variable Bayesian VAR forecasting model of the U.S. economy for use in a monetary policy setting. The variables that comprise the model are selected not only for their effectiveness in forecasting the primary variables of interest, but also for their relevance to the monetary policy process. In particular, the variables largely coincide with those of an augmented New-Keynesian DSGE model. We provide out-of sample forecast evaluations and illustrate the computation and use of predictive densities and fan charts. Although the reduced form model is the focus of the paper, we also provide an example of structural analysis to illustrate the macroeconomic response of a monetary policy shock.

JEL classification: C11; C32; C53; E37

Keywords: Bayesian Vector-Autoregression, Forecasting, Monetary Policy

Suggested citation: Beauchemin, Kenneth, and Saeed Zaman, 2011. “A Medium Scale Forecasting Model for Monetary Policy,” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper no. 11-28.

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