New Cleveland Fed research: High short-term inflation expectations could make it harder to bring down inflation than before the pandemic

April 17, 2023—Historically, a slowing economy has helped to lower inflation. But in the post-pandemic world, high short term inflation expectations could put greater upward pressure on current inflation, even when long-term inflation expectations remain anchored around the 2 percent inflation target.

That is the main takeaway of a new report from the Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research. In “Trend Inflation and Implications for the Phillips Curve,” research economist Ina Hajdini uses a novel approach to estimate the inflation trend. She finds that even though monetary policy is able to have slightly more powerful effects on inflation than before the pandemic, short-term inflation expectations now matter more for current inflation than do longer-term inflation expectations.

“While a slowing economy would help to bring down inflation through the steeper slope of the Phillips curve, elevated short-term inflation expectations…could keep boosting inflation to a larger extent than they had during the prepandemic period,” Hajdini writes.

Read the Economic Commentary: https://clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentary/2023/ec-202307-trend-inflation-implications-phillips-curve

Explore more work from the Center for Inflation Research (clevelandfed.org)

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that along with the Board of Governors in Washington DC comprise the Federal Reserve System. Part of the US central bank, the Cleveland Fed participates in the formulation of our nation’s monetary policy, supervises banking organizations, provides payment and other services to financial institutions and to the US Treasury, and performs many activities that support Federal Reserve operations System-wide. In addition, the Bank supports the well-being of communities across the Fourth Federal Reserve District through a wide array of research, outreach, and educational activities.

The Cleveland Fed, with branches in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, serves an area that comprises Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

Media contact

Doug Campbell, doug.campbell@clev.frb.org, 513.455.4479