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Ellis W. Tallman
Person

Ellis W. Tallman

Economist Emeritus
Areas of Expertise economic and financial history, economic forecasting, financial crises
Department Research
Education
  • AB,
  • Economics and English,
  • Indiana University,
  • 1980
  • MA,
  • Economics,
  • University of Rochester,
  • 1985
  • PhD,
  • Economics,
  • University of Rochester,
  • 1988

Ellis W. Tallman is an economist emeritus of the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Before his retirement, Dr. Tallman was the executive vice president and senior economic policy advisor. In that role, he advised the Cleveland Reserve Bank’s president on monetary policy and related matters. His research focused on macroeconomics, economic forecasting, and US historical episodes of financial crises and policy responses.

Prior to taking up his role as executive vice president, Dr.Tallman was the director of research at the Cleveland Reserve Bank. He was responsible for overseeing the Research Department’s various teams conducting economic research and policy analysis. Before he became Research Director, Dr. Tallman was the Danforth-Lewis Professor of Economics at Oberlin College in the Economics Department and was a visiting scholar in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Prior to joining Oberlin College, Dr. Tallman was a vice president and team leader for the macroeconomics group in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and an adjunct professor at Emory University. Dr. Tallman also served a two-year appointment as a visiting senior research economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia, where he engaged in policy support and provided economic research for Australia’s central bank.

Dr. Tallman holds an AB in economics from Indiana University Bloomington and an MA and a PhD in economics from the University of Rochester.

Featured Publications

  • Fighting Financial Crises: Learning from the Past. With Gary B. Gorton. The University of Chicago Press. 2018.
  • “Business Cycles and Financial Crises: The Role of Credit Demand and Supply Shocks.” With James M. Nason. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2012, 19(4): 836–882. (working paper)
  • “Forecasting Using Relative Entropy.” With John C. Robertson and Charles H. Whiteman. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2005, 37(3): 383–401.
  • “Human Capital and Endogenous Growth: Evidence from Taiwan.” With Ping Wang. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1994, 34(1): 101–124.

Books

  • Fighting Financial Crises: Learning from the Past. With Gary B. Gorton. The University of Chicago Press. 2018.

Journal Articles

  • “Combining Survey Long-Run Forecasts and Nowcasts with BVAR Forecasts Using Relative Entropy.” With Saeed Zaman.  International Journal of Forecasting, 2020 (April-June): 36(2):373-398. Revision of Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper 18-09 (June 2018). 
  • “Outside Lending in the New York City Call Loan Market: The Panic of 1907.” With Jon R. Moen. Financial History Review, 2019 (April): 26(1): 43-62. (working paper)
  • “The Transmission of the Financial Crisis of 1907: An Empirical Investigation.” With Jon R. Moen. Cliometrica, 2017, 12(2). (working paper)
  • “Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Service Price Measures.” With Saeed Zaman. International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33(2): 442–457. (working paper)
  • “Liquidity Provision during the Crisis of 1914: Private and Public Sources.” With Margaret M. Jacobson. Journal of Financial Stability, Special Issue: Instead of the Fed: Past and Present Alternatives to the Federal Reserve System, edited by George Selgin. 2015, 17 (April): 22–34. (working paper)
  • “Business Cycles and Financial Crises: The Role of Credit Demand and Supply Shocks.” With James M. Nason. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2012, 19(4): 836–882. (working paper)
  • “Liquidity Creation without a Central Bank: Clearing House Loan Certificates in the Banking Panic of 1907.” With Jon R. Moen. Journal of Financial Stability, 2012, 8(4): 277–291. (working paper)
  • “Forecasting Using Relative Entropy.” With John C. Robertson and Charles H. Whiteman. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2005, 37(3): 383–401.
  • “Permanent Income and Transitory Variation in Investment and Output.” With Lance A. Fisher and Hyeon-seung Huh. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2003, 25(2): 149–168.
  • “Nominal and Real Disturbances and Money Demand in Chinese Hyperinflation.” With De-Piao Tang and Ping Wang. Economic Inquiry, 2003, 41(2): 234–249.
  • “Improving Federal-Funds Rate Forecasts in VAR Models Used for Policy Analysis.” With John C. Robertson. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2001, 19(3): 324–330.
  • “Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction during the Panic of 1907.” With Jon R. Moen. Journal of Economic History, 2000, 60(1): 145–163.
  • “Gold Shocks, Liquidity, and the US Economy during the National Banking Era.” With Jon R. Moen. Explorations in Economic History, 1998, 35(4): 381–404.
  • “The Relative Price of Capital Goods in Hyperinflations.” With Ping Wang. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1995, 36(2): 375–404.
  • “Human Capital and Endogenous Growth: Evidence from Taiwan.” With Ping Wang. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1994, 34(1): 101–124.
  • “Fiscal Policy and Trade Adjustment: Are the Deficits Really Twins?” With Jeffrey Rosensweig. Economic Inquiry, 1993, 31(4): 580–594.
  • “The Bank Panic of 1907: The Role of Trust Companies.” With Jon R. Moen. Journal of Economic History, 1992, 52(3): 611–630.

Book Chapters

  • “Monetary Policy with a Large Balance Sheet: Lessons from the Financial History of the United States.” In Innovative Federal Reserve Policies during the Great Financial Crisis, Chapter 2, edited by D.D. Evanoff, G.G. Kaufman, and A.S. Malliaris. Now Publishers: Hackensack, NJ., forthcoming.
  • “The Banking Panic of 1907.” In Routledge Handbook of Major Events in Economic History, edited by Randall E. Parker and Robert Whaples, Chapter 6. New York: Routledge, 2013.
  • Errata to “Gold Shocks, Liquidity, and the United States Economy during the National Banking Era.” With Jon R. Moen. In Explorations in Economic History, 2008, 45 (January): 100–105.
  • “Review of Elmus Wicker, The Great Debate on Banking Reform: Nelson Aldrich and the Origins of the Fed.” EH.Net. August 2006.
  • “The Bank Panic of 1907.” With Jon R. Moen. In the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, edited by Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.
  • “The Impact of a Dealer’s Failure on OTC Derivatives Market Liquidity during Volatile Periods.” With Larry D. Wall and Peter Abken. In Research in Banking and Finance: Volume 1, edited by Iftekhar Hasan and William C. Hunter, 177–198. Elsevier Publishing, 2000.

Conference Proceedings

  • “Quels enseignments de la panique de 1907 pour l’analyse de la crise de 2008?” With Jon R. Moen. Revue d’économie financière, forthcoming.
  • “Too Big to Fail Before the Fed.” With Gary B. Gorton. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 2016, 106(5): 528–32. (working paper)
  • “Close but Not a Central Bank: The New York Clearing House and Issues of Clearing House Loan Certificates.” With Jon R. Moen. In Current Policy Under the Lens of Economic History, edited by Owen F. Humpage, Chapter 5, 102–125. Cambridge University Press: New York, 2015. (working paper).
  • Comment on “The Promise and Performance of the Federal Reserve as Lender of Last Resort, 1914–1933” by Michael D. Bordo and David C. Wheelock. In A Return to Jekyll Island: The Origins, History, and Future of the Federal Reserve, edited by Michael D. Bordo and William Roberds, Cambridge University Press: New York, 2013.
  • Comment on “Trends in the Aggregate Labor Force” by Kenneth J. Matheny. Presented at the 33rd Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. October 16–17, 2009.
  • “Private Sector Responses to the Panic of 1907: A Comparison of New York and Chicago.” With Jon R. Moen. In Private Enterprise during Economic Crises: Tactics and Strategies, LEGAS, Ottawa, 1997.
  • “Monetary Policy and Bank Balance Sheet Behaviour in Australia.” With Nargis Bharucha. In Proceedings of the 12th Pacific Basin Central Bank Conference on the Impact of Financial Market Development on the Real Economy, Monetary Authority of Singapore, November 1996.

Other Federal Reserve Publications