Guhan Venkatu

Person

Areas of Expertise regional economic activity

BA,
Economics,
Miami University,
1995

MA,
Economics,
Miami University,
1997

Guhan Venkatu is a senior policy advisor in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. His research has focused on inflation, mortgage markets, and factors related to regional economic growth. His research and analysis have been a resource for the public, and he has advised and informed the Bank’s president and boards of directors.

Mr. Venkatu joined the Cleveland Reserve Bank in 1998 as a research analyst. In his tenure with the Bank, he has held positions of increasing responsibility including economic analyst, economist, vice president, and group vice president.

Mr. Venkatu is a graduate of Leadership Cleveland and Leadership Pittsburgh and serves as a member of the Ohio Economic Roundtable, an advisory group to the state’s governor. He received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics from Miami University in Oxford, Ohio.

Working Papers

Working Paper

Trimmed-Mean Inflation Statistics: Just Hit the One in the Middle

Brent Meyer Guhan Venkatu

02.01.2014 | WP 12-17R

This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception, asking whether there is a particular trimmed-mean measure that dominates the median CPI.

Topics: Inflation, Econometrics modeling and forecasting

Working Paper

Trimmed-Mean Inflation Statistics: Just Hit the One in the Middle

Brent Meyer Guhan Venkatu

09.13.2012 | WP 12-17

This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception, asking whether there is a particular trimmed-mean measure that dominates the median CPI.

Topics: Inflation

Economic Commentaries

Economic Commentary

Forecasting Inflation? Target the Middle

Brent Meyer Guhan Venkatu Saeed Zaman

04.11.2013 | EC 2013-05

The Median CPI is well-known as an accurate predictor of future inflation. But it’s just one of many possible trimmed-mean inflation measures. Recent research compares these types of measures to see which tracks future inflation best. Not only does the Median CPI outperform other trims in predicting CPI inflation, it also does a better job of predicting PCE inflation, the FOMC’s preferred measure, than the core PCE.

Economic Commentary

Alternatives to Libor in Consumer Mortgages

Mark E. Schweitzer Guhan Venkatu

10.11.2012 | EC 2012-14

Many adjustable rate mortgages in the United States are indexed to Libor.

Economic Commentary

10 Things to Know About the Shape of Ohio's Skilled Workforce

Timothy Dunne Guhan Venkatu

05.15.2012 | EC 2012-06

A region’s economic performance is closely linked to the skills and knowledge of its workforce.

Economic Commentary

Demographic Differences in Inflation Expectations: What Do They Really Mean?

Brent Meyer Guhan Venkatu

05.17.2011 | EC 2011-07

It has often been reported that different demographic groups show persistent differences in their inflation expectations.

Economic Commentary

Out of the Shadows: Projected Levels for Future REO Inventory

Guhan Venkatu

10.19.2010 | EC 2010-14

Nearly one homeowner in ten is more than 90 days delinquent on his mortgage payment.

Economic Commentary

Foreclosure Metrics

Timothy Dunne Guhan Venkatu

04.09.2009 | EC 4/1/2009

As the foreclosure crisis deepens, increased attention is being paid to foreclosure statistics, which are often used to judge the intensity of foreclosure problems both within and across regions.

Topics: Econometrics modeling and forecasting, Housing crises, Urban economic conditions

Economic Commentary

Adjustable-Rate Mortgages and the Libor Surprise

Mark E. Schweitzer Guhan Venkatu

01.21.2009 | EC 1/1/2009

Adjustable-rate mortgages have typically been tied to either of two indexes, one based on U.S. treasuries, the other on the London interbank offered rate, or Libor.

Economic Commentary

Cleveland (on the) Rocks

Guhan Venkatu

02.01.2006 | EC 2/1/2006

Cleveland’s employment growth has lagged the nation’s for nearly 15years.

Economic Commentary

Employment Surveys Are Telling the Same Sad Story

Mark E. Schweitzer Guhan Venkatu

05.15.2004 | EC 5/15/2004

Two government surveys are used to gather information about employment in the U.S. economy, but the employment levels calculated from the surveys seem to provide conflicting pictures of the labor market.

Economic Commentary

The Curiously Different Inflation Perspectives of Men and Women

Michael F. Bryan Guhan Venkatu

11.01.2001 | EC 11/1/2001

That men and women occasionally see things differently is not a remarkable observation. But that the sexes could report vastly different perspectives on the rate at which prices are rising over a long period of time is astonishing.

Economic Commentary

The Demographics of Inflation Opinion Surveys

Michael F. Bryan Guhan Venkatu

10.15.2001 | EC 10/15/2001

In this Commentary, we document that people report very different perceptions and predictions of inflation depending upon their income, education, age, race, and gender—a strange finding that may provide an important clue.

District Data Briefs

Cleveland Fed District Data Brief

How Has Ohio Fared in the Current Business Cycle?

Guhan Venkatu

03.26.2024

This brief explores how Ohio’s economy has fared in the current business cycle and how it has compared to those of other states by using quarterly GDP data.

Topics: State and local economies, Economic growth, Business cycles

Cleveland Fed District Data Brief

Many Major District Metro Areas Have Yet to Recover to Their Prepandemic Employment Levels

Guhan Venkatu

08.31.2023

Though the nation’s employment levels have recovered from the pandemic, for many metros areas in our region, employment growth remains weak. This suggests that structural factors are limiting progress.

Topics: Business cycles, Recessions

Forefront

Forefront

Change is Afoot in Eastern Kentucky

Bonnie S. Blankenship Joel A. Elvery Tasia M. Hane Matt Klesta Michelle Park Lazette Anne O’Shaughnessy Guhan Venkatu Ann Marie Wiersch

07.31.2016 | Summer 2016, Vol. 7, No. 2

Appalshop—a media, arts, and education center, seeks to preserve the rich cultural history and heritage of Appalachia.

Forefront

State of Employment: Are Fourth District Labor Markets Tight?

Bonnie S. Blankenship Tasia M. Hane Jessica Ice Matt Klesta Michelle Park Lazette Karen Malec April McClellan-Copeland Christopher Vecchio Guhan Venkatu

04.17.2016 | Spring 2016, Vol. 7, No. 1

The unemployment rate is the primary indicator of the tightness of the labor market and in the Fourth District, the labor market tightness varies.

Topics: Labor economics

Forefront

Making Financial Markets Safer for Consumers

Jean Burson Thomas J. Fitzpatrick IV Daniel A. Littman Todd Morgano Mary Helen Petrus Sandra Pianalto Francisca García-Cobián Richter Guhan Venkatu Stephan D. Whitaker

12.15.2009 | Winter 2009 - 2010, Vol. 1, No. 1

In the wake of the mortgage meltdown, policymakers are discussing how best to protect consumers in financial product markets. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland hosted a seminar, “Consumer Protection in Financial Product Markets,” in September 2009 to exchange ideas with other regulators about consumer protection and the role of the courts.

Other Publications

Article

Rust and Renewal: A Pittsburgh Retrospective

Guhan Venkatu

This retrospective report evaluates the Pittsburgh metropolitan statistical area's economic performance and the importance of manufacturing in the region from 1969 to the present.

Article

Job Quality During the Expansion

Loretta J. Mester Guhan Venkatu

12.17.2015

After the Great Recession began in December 2007, U.S. nonfarm payroll employment fell by about 8.7 million jobs; 8.8 million jobs were lost in the private sector.

Topics: Labor economics

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