The US Banks’ Balance Sheet Transmission Channel of Oil Price Shocks
We document the existence of a quantitative relevant banks' balance-sheet transmission channel of oil price shocks by estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with banking and oil sectors. The associated amplification mechanism implies that those shocks explain a non-negligible share of US GDP growth fluctuations, up to 17 percent, instead of 6 percent absent the banking sector. Also, they mitigated the severity of the Great Recession’s trough. GDP growth would have been 2.48 percentage points more negative in 2008Q4 without the beneficial effect of low oil prices. The estimate without the banking sector is only 1.30 percentage points.
Working Papers of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment on research in progress. They may not have been subject to the formal editorial review accorded official Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland publications. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Federal Reserve System.
Suggested Citation
Gelain, Paolo, and Marco Lorusso. 2022. “The US Banks’ Balance Sheet Transmission Channel of Oil Price Shocks.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper No. 22-33. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202233
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