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Working Paper

How Inflationary Is an Extended Period of Low Interest Rates?

Recent monetary policy experience suggests a simple test of models of monetary non-neutrality. Suppose the central bank pegs the nominal interest rate below steady state for a reasonably short period of time. Familiar intuition suggests that this should be inflationary. But a monetary model should be rejected if a reasonably short nominal rate peg results in an unreasonably large inflation response. We pursue this simple test in three variants of the familiar dynamic new Keynesian (DNK) model. All of these models fail this test. Further some variants of the model produce inflation reversals where an interest rate peg leads to sharp deflations.

Working Papers of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment on research in progress. They may not have been subject to the formal editorial review accorded official Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland publications. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Federal Reserve System.


Suggested Citation

Carlstrom, Charles T., Timothy S. Fuerst, and Matthius Paustian. 2012. “How Inflationary Is an Extended Period of Low Interest Rates? .” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper No. 12-02. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-201202