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Working Paper

The U.S. Demographic Transition Perfect Capital Markets

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Between 1800 and 1940 the United States went through a dramatic demographic transition. In 1800 the average woman had seven children, and 94 percent of the population lived in rural areas. By 1940 the average woman birthed just two kids, and only 43 percent of populace lived in the country. The question is: What accounted for this shift in the demographic landscape? The answer given here is that technological progress in agriculture and manufacturing explains these facts.
10.01.2001ISSN 2573-7953 WP 01-18
Keywords fertility, technological progress, agriculture, manufacturing
JEL Classification Codes E1, J1, O3

Working Papers of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment on research in progress. They may not have been subject to the formal editorial review accorded official Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland publications. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Federal Reserve System.

Suggested Citation

Greenwood, Jeremy, and Ananth Seshradi. 2001. “The U.S. Demographic Transition Perfect Capital Markets.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper No. 01-18.