The Ohio Economy: Using Time Series Characteristics in Forecasting

The series methods are used to determine what information Ohio and national statistics convey about the current and future state of the regional economy. Properties of a number of quarterly series measuring aggregate economic activity and prices in Ohio are described, including their growth rates and variability, cyclicity, correlation at a moment in time, tendency to foreshadow each other’s movements, and tendency to be foreshadowed by national economic indicators. These properties are of interest both for forecasting, either Formal or judgmental, and for understanding structural characteristics of the Ohio economy. They are extensively tabulated here.