Forecasting GNP Using Monthly M1
Comparisons of forecast errors among different studies is often difficult because of the different time periods involved and because of the different amount of data available when the forecasts are actually made. However, comparisons of the forecasts errors for these models to results from other studies using St. Louis type equations indicate that the models presented in this study appear to perform slightly better than the St. Louis models for one-quarter forecasts in terms of RMSE. Also, results for one-year change forecasts are apparently better than the median of five early- quarter forecasts by the ASAINBER survey, Chase, Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), Wharton, and BEA.
Bagshaw, Michael L. 1985. “Forecasting GNP Using Monthly M1.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper No. 85-03.