The Importance of Structure in Decisionmaking

A learned early in my career as a business economist that perhaps the worst answer an economist can give to a question is, “I don’t know.” And having spent much of my life in the company of economists, I can honestly say it is a response I’ve not often heard. I am reminded of the remark Paul Samuelson once made about Milton Friedman: “I wish I was as certain about anything as Milton Friedman is about everything.” Perhaps we are, as many believe, a profession that is frequently wrong, though never in doubt.