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Economic Commentary

Can State Employment Declines Foretell National Business Cycles?

Is it possible to predict national recessions by following the employment performance of specific states or regions? The author investigates this question from a historical perspective by comparing the employment patterns of states to the health of the national economy over the post-WWII period.

The views authors express in Economic Commentary are theirs and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The series editor is Tasia Hane. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. This paper and its data are subject to revision; please visit for updates.

Suggested Citation

Eberts, Randall. 1990. “Can State Employment Declines Foretell National Business Cycles?” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary 9/15/1990.