Urban and Regional Migration Estimates, Second Quarter 2023 Update
This Data Brief updates the figures that appeared in "Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic?" with data for 2023 Q2 for all series. Migration estimates will enable us to track which urban neighborhoods and metro areas are returning to their old migration patterns and where the pandemic has permanently shifted migration trends.
This Data Brief updates the figures that appeared in the Cleveland Fed District Data Brief "Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic?" with data for 2023 Q2 for all series. The first series measures net migration of people to and from the urban neighborhoods of major metro areas. The second series covers all neighborhoods but breaks down net migration to other regions by four region types: (1) high-cost metros, (2) affordable, large metros, (3) midsized metros, and (4) small metros and rural areas. The metro area definitions used here are the combined statistical areas, which group adjacent regions like Cleveland, Akron, and Canton together.
Recent trends in urban neighborhood migration
- Migration out of urban neighborhoods nationally moved slightly closer to its prepandemic trend, with outmigration averaging 128,000 per quarter (Figure 1).
- Among metro areas, urban neighborhood outflows slowed in San Diego, Portland, and Sacramento, but these areas remain far from returning to prepandemic trends (Figures 3 and 4). Before the pandemic, San Diego and Sacramento usually had small net outflows of a few hundred people per quarter from their urban neighborhoods, while Portland used to add a few hundred people via migration to its urban neighborhoods.
- In three other metros, Seattle, Phoenix, and New Orleans, postpandemic outflows remained very high (Figures 3 and 5).
- Population recovery in New York’s urban neighborhoods stalled, while the urban neighborhoods of Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, and Philadelphia, saw increases (Figure 2).
Net Migration to and from Urban Neighborhoods
The red vertical line indicates the beginning of the pandemic. The prepandemic trend is the line that best fits the prepandemic (2010:Q1 to 2019:Q4) observations. The recovery trend is the line that best fits the 2021:Q2 to 2023:Q2 observations. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, US Census Bureau, and author’s calculations.
Figures 2 to 6 below present metro areas in descending order of their urban populations.
The red vertical line indicates the beginning of the pandemic. The green line is the prepandemic (2010:Q1 to 2019:Q4) trend. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, US Census Bureau, and author’s calculations.
The red vertical line indicates the beginning of the pandemic. The green line is the prepandemic (2010:Q1 to 2019:Q4) trend. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, US Census Bureau, and author’s calculations.
The red vertical line indicates the beginning of the pandemic. The green line is the prepandemic (2010:Q1 to 2019:Q4) trend. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, US Census Bureau, and author’s calculations.
The red vertical line indicates the beginning of the pandemic. The green line is the prepandemic (2010:Q1 to 2019:Q4) trend. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, US Census Bureau, and author’s calculations.
The red vertical line indicates the beginning of the pandemic. The green line is the prepandemic (2010:Q1 to 2019:Q4) trend. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, US Census Bureau, and author’s calculations.
Net Regional Migration
The red vertical line indicates the beginning of the pandemic. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, US Census Bureau, and author’s calculations.
Recent trends in migration between regions
- A large group of metros moved in the direction of recovery to their prepandemic norms, including Los Angeles (Figure 8), San Francisco, and Boston (Figure 9), Seattle, Phoenix, Minneapolis, and Denver (Figure 11), San Diego and Portland (Figure 12), Sacramento and Salt Lake City (Figure 14).
- Six southern metros that received an influx of migrants during the pandemic saw a continued slowing of that influx in 2023 Q2: Dallas (Figure 9), Houston (Figure 10), Orlando (Figure 12), Tampa (Figure 13), and Austin and Nashville (Figure 16).
Figures 8 to 16 below present metro areas in descending order of their total populations.
The red vertical line indicates the beginning of the pandemic. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, US Census Bureau, and author’s calculations.
The red vertical line indicates the beginning of the pandemic. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, US Census Bureau, and author’s calculations.
The red vertical line indicates the beginning of the pandemic. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, US Census Bureau, and author’s calculations.
The red vertical line indicates the beginning of the pandemic. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, US Census Bureau, and author’s calculations.
The red vertical line indicates the beginning of the pandemic. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, US Census Bureau, and author’s calculations.
The red vertical line indicates the beginning of the pandemic. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, US Census Bureau, and author’s calculations.
The red vertical line indicates the beginning of the pandemic. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, US Census Bureau, and author’s calculations.
The red vertical line indicates the beginning of the pandemic. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, US Census Bureau, and author’s calculations.
The red vertical line indicates the beginning of the pandemic. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, US Census Bureau, and author’s calculations.
The views expressed in this report are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
References
- DeWaard, Jack, Janna Johnson, and Stephan D. Whitaker. 2019. “Internal Migration in the United States: A Comprehensive Comparative Assessment of the Consumer Credit Panel.” Demographic Research 41 (October): 953–1006. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2019.41.33.
- Lee, Donghoon, and Wilbert Van der Klaauw. 2010. “An Introduction to the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel.” Staff report 479. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. https://fedinprint.org/item/fednsr/12522.
Appendix
Graph values
Tables A1 and A2 contain the migration estimates that appear in each of the figures in this update. For the urban neighborhood estimates to be included in the figures and table, the metro area had to have at least 250,000 people living in its urban neighborhoods in 2019. The metros above this threshold represent 90 percent of urban residents in the US. Table A2 contains the net migration between the combined statistical areas with populations above 2 million and the four types of regions: high-cost metros (HC), affordable, large metros (AL), midsized metros with populations 500,000 to 2 million (MS), small metro areas, with populations below 500,000, and rural areas (SR). As in the figures, all values are four-quarter moving averages. The units are thousands of migrants.
Data sources
The migration estimates in this update are created with data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel (CCP). The CCP is a 5 percent random sample of the credit histories maintained by Equifax. The CCP reports the census block of residence for over 10 million individuals each quarter. Each month, Equifax receives individuals’ addresses, along with reports of debt balances and payments, from creditors (mortgage lenders, credit card issuers, student loan servicers, etc.). An algorithm maintained by Equifax considers all of the addresses reported for an individual and identifies the individual’s most likely current address. Equifax anonymizes the data before they are added to the CCP, removing names, addresses, and Social Security numbers (SSNs). In lieu of mailing addresses, the census block of the address is added to the CCP. Equifax creates a unique, anonymous identifier to enable researchers to build individuals’ panels. The panel nature of the data allows us to observe when someone has migrated and is living in a census block different from the one they lived in at the end of the preceding quarter. For more details about the CCP and its use in measuring migration, see Lee and van der Klaauw (2010) and DeWaard, Johnson, and Whitaker (2019).
American Community Survey data are used to designate census tracts as urban or non-urban. Listing data from the National Association of Realtors are used to designate the high-cost metro areas.
Definitions
Metropolitan area
The metropolitan areas in this report are combined statistical areas. This is the most aggregate definition of metro areas, and it combines Washington DC with Baltimore, San Jose with San Francisco, Akron with Cleveland, etc. Metro areas are combinations of counties that are tightly linked by worker commutes and other economic activity. All counties outside of metropolitan areas are tracked as parts of a rural commuting zone (CZ). CZs are also groups of counties linked by commuting, but CZ definitions cover all counties, both metropolitan and non-metropolitan.
High-cost metropolitan areas
High-cost metro areas are those where the median list price for a house was more than $200 per square foot on average between April 2017 and April 2022. These areas include San Francisco-San Jose, New York, San Diego, Los Angeles, Seattle, Boston, Miami, Sacramento, Denver, Salt Lake City, Portland, and Washington-Baltimore. All other metro areas with populations above 2 million are categorized as affordable, large metros.
Urban neighborhood
For the analysis of urban neighborhoods, census tracts are designated as urban if they have a population density above 7,000 people per square mile. High-density neighborhoods can support walkable retail districts and high-frequency public transportation. They are more likely to have the “street life” that people associate with living in an urban rather than a suburban area. The threshold of 7,000 people per square mile was selected because it was the average density in the largest US cities in the 1930 census. Before World War II, workplaces, shopping, schools, and parks had to be accessible on foot.
Tracts are also designated as urban if more than half of their housing units were built before WWII and they have a population density above 2,000 people per square mile. The lower threshold for population density for the pre-war neighborhoods recognizes that many urban tracts have lost population since the 1960s. While the street grids usually remain, the area also needs sufficient density to support neighborhood establishments and continue to function as an urban neighborhood.
Small cities and towns often have a few dense and walkable neighborhoods, but these tracts are not given an urban designation unless their metro area has at least 500,000 residents. Another defining characteristic of an urban neighborhood is that it places its residents close to amenities that can only be supported by the scale of a major metro, such as major league sports stadiums, professional theaters, museums, etc.
Urban migration
To obtain net urban migration estimates, we count the number of people moving into the urban neighborhoods of the indicated metros and subtract the number of people moving out of the same urban neighborhoods. Negative values mean more people are leaving than arriving. The out-migration counts include people moving from the urban neighborhoods to suburbs in the same metro area or to any region outside the metro area. Similarly, the in-migration counts include people arriving in the urban neighborhoods from suburbs in the same metro area or any region outside the metro area. Local urban-to-urban moves are not included.
Regional migration
The regional migration estimates count the people who move between different metro areas or between metro areas and rural commuting zones. Local within-metro movers are not included. The estimates of regional moves include everyone who moves to another region, making no distinction between urban/suburban neighborhoods.
Suggested Citation
Whitaker, Stephan D. 2023. “Urban and Regional Migration Estimates, Second Quarter 2023 Update.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland Fed District Data Brief. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ddb-20231114
This work by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International
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